Online risk scores for pre- and postoperative prediction of early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing conversion liver resection after tyrosine kinase inhibitors and immune checkpoint inhibitors therapy.

Background: Conversion therapy with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) offers the potential for curative resection in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, early recurrence (≤2 years) after conversion liver resection remains a major concern. This study aimed to develop and validate online preoperative and postoperative risk scores to predict early recurrence in patients undergoing conversion liver resection.

Methods: A total of 203 patients with initially unresectable HCC who underwent conversion liver resection following TKI and ICI therapy across 28 academic centers were analyzed. Independent predictors of early recurrence were identified using Cox proportional hazards analyses, and risk scores were developed and validated using the C-index, time-dependent AUC (tdAUC), and calibration curves.

Results: Preoperative risk score model included the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥ 1.39, multiple tumors, absence of radiographic response, and no alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response. Postoperative risk score model included NLR ≥1.39, multiple tumors, no AFP response, active macrovascular invasion, and incomplete pathological response. The preoperative risk score had a C-index of 0.699 (training) and 0.681 (validation), while the postoperative risk score had a C-index of 0.739 (training) and 0.706 (validation). Both models demonstrated good predictive accuracy through tdAUC and calibration curves. Decision tree analysis stratified patients into distinct risk categories with significant differences in 2-year recurrence rates. All risk score models are available online for clinical use.

Conclusion: Online preoperative and postoperative risk scores provide valuable tools for predicting early recurrence in HCC patients after conversion liver resection, aiding in surgical decision-making and postoperative management.