Additive effect of atherogenic index of plasma and social determinants of health on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in U.S. adults with diabetes and prediabetes.

Aims: Diabetes and prediabetes present significant global health challenges, especially as the population ages. However, prediabetes is often under-recognized, and reliable predictors of long-term outcomes remain scarce. This study aimed to identify the most effective metabolic health-related indicator and combine it with Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) to enhance the accuracy of predicting long-term mortality in U.S. adults with diabetes and prediabetes.

Methods: This cross-sectional and cohort study included 6,180 eligible participants from the NHANES 2005-2018 database. The predictive performance of SDoH and eight metabolic health-related indicators was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The associations of the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), SDoH, and their combination (AIP + SDoH) with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression models.

Results: AIP provedtobe the most efficacious metabolic health-related predictor for U.S. adults with diabetes and prediabetes. Cox regression models and subgroup analyses consistently demonstrated that the AIP + SDoH combination had an additive effect, significantly predicting both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Conclusions: The AIP + SDoH combination is a robust independent prognostic factor, highlighting its potential to improve mortality prediction in U.S. adults with diabetes and prediabetes.