Analysis of an HIV/AIDS Model with sexual transmission and travel in a patchy environment.

J Math Biol

Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030006, China.

Published: May 2025


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Article Abstract

In this paper, a multi-patch HIV/AIDS epidemic model with heterosexual transmission is formulated to investigate the impact of travel among patches. It is a system of ordinary differential equations describes HIV/AIDS spread in an environment divided into n patches. We derive the basic reproduction number . Lower and upper bounds on are given. We prove that if , the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, and if , there is at least an endemic equilibrium. We apply the model to three patches in which the disease spreads in a patch and dies out in the other two patches when there is no travel between them. We considered three types of connection between three patches: full connection(FC), i.e., , circular connection(CC), i.e., and bidirectional connection(BC), i.e., . We set different travel and return rates to study the impact of travel on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Numerical simulations confirm the theoretical results and indicate that travel may increase or decrease the spread of HIV/AIDS, i.e. HIV/AIDS may become endemic or die out in three patches when travel occurs, and three types of connection may have different impacts on disease transmission.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-025-02226-9DOI Listing

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