Beijing Longitudinal Disability Survey in Community Elderly (BLINDSCE): protocol for a community-based prospective longitudinal cohort study about disability prediction model.

Introduction: The rapidly expanding population of ageing and older adults with disability has been a continuing public health priority in recent decades. The first step towards solving this issue is to assess disability accurately and identify high-risk factors and individuals for early prevention. We aim to establish a prospective cohort, the Beijing Longitudinal Disability Survey in Community Elderly (BLINDSCE), using multidimensional disability assessments and to develop multifactorial models for disability prediction among community-dwelling older adults.

Methods And Analysis: The BLINDSCE is a prospective cohort study that includes community-dwelling older adults aged ≥65 years with or without disability from urban and rural areas in Beijing. Participants complete structured questionnaires and undergo assessments of disability, cognition and disability-related factors and outcomes. Disability is assessed using the WHO's Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0, activities of daily living, the Barthel index, locomotor function and physical function. Based on baseline cross-sectional information, the relationships between multiple factors and disability can be initially screened using logistic regression. Every 1-1.5 years, participants will receive a follow-up survey to remeasure disability, cognitive function and other disability-related factors and outcomes. At least three follow-ups are scheduled. The primary outcome of this study is disability. The secondary outcomes include cognition and many disability-related conditions, such as falls, pain, poor health, decreased intrinsic capacity, frailty, sarcopenia, hospitalisation and death. Cox proportional hazards or logistic regression will be used to analyse follow-up data and construct prediction models, which will be validated internally and externally.

Ethics And Dissemination: The Ethics Committee of Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, approved this study (No: [2023]129). The results will be published in peer-reviewed journals focusing on geriatric medicine and presented at related scientific conferences.

Trials Registration Number: NCT06863727. Stage of study: recruiting.