On Discretely Structured Growth Models and Their Moments.

Bull Math Biol

Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK.

Published: May 2025


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Article Abstract

The logistic equation is ubiquitous in applied mathematics as a minimal model of saturating growth. Here, we examine a broad generalisation of the logistic growth model to discretely structured populations, motivated by examples that range from the ageing of individuals in a species to immune cell exhaustion by cancerous tissue. Through exploration of a range of concrete examples and a general analysis of polynomial kinetics, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the dependence of the kinetics on structure to result in closed, low-dimensional moment equations that are exact. Further, we showcase how coarse-grained moment information can be used to elucidate the details of structured dynamics, with immediate potential for model selection and hypothesis testing. This paper belongs to the special collection: Problems, Progress and Perspectives in Mathematical and Computational Biology.

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12069487PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-025-01446-wDOI Listing

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