All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Associated with Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Japan: The Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study.

Aims: Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM) is causally associated with mortality and cardiovascular disease. However, in terms of cardiovascular cause-specific outcomes, there are fewer studies about stroke than about coronary heart disease, particularly in Asia. Furthermore, there remains uncertainty regarding the PM-respiratory disease association. We examined whether long-term exposure to PM is associated with all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory disease mortality in Japan.

Methods: We used data of 46,974 participants (19,707 men; 27,267 women), who were enrolled in 2009 and followed up until 2019, in a community-based prospective cohort study (the second cohort of the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study). We estimated PM concentrations using the inverse distance weighing methods based on ambient air monitoring data, and assigned each participant to administrative area level concentrations. A Cox proportional hazard model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of mortality.

Results: During the average follow-up of 10 years, we confirmed 2,789 all-cause deaths. All outcomes including stroke mortality did not significantly increase as the PM concentration increased. For non-malignant respiratory disease mortality, the multivariable adjusted HR per 1 µg/m increase in the PM concentration was 1.09 (95% CI = 0.97-1.23).

Conclusions: In this population exposed to PM at concentrations of 8.3-13.1 µg/m, there was no evidence that long-term exposure to PM had adverse effects on mortality. Weak evidence of positive association observed for non-malignant respiratory disease mortality needs further studies in other populations.