Meta-Analysis: Global Prevalence and Mortality of Cirrhosis in Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease.

Background And Aims: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is responsible for a significant global health burden. Despite this burden, the prevalence and mortality of MASLD-related cirrhosis remain inadequately defined, hindering effective public health strategies. This study aimed to estimate the global prevalence and mortality associated with MASLD-related cirrhosis.

Methods: A systematic search of PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and SCOPUS was conducted using keywords related to MASLD and cirrhosis from inception of each database used through June 2024. COVIDENCE was used for abstract and manuscript review. MASLD populations were categorised into 'general practice setting' and 'high risk setting', which indicated studies from inpatient setting or those referred for liver biopsy for an indication (elevated liver enzymes). Our data extraction and quality assessment followed PRISMA guidelines. A random-effects model was utilised for meta-analysis.

Results: From 7924 identified articles, 35 studies comprising 513,742 patients with MASLD met the inclusion criteria. The pooled global prevalence of cirrhosis among MASLD patients was 3.26% (95% CI: 2.47%-4.31%) in general practice settings (4 studies) and 14.51% (95% CI: 11.22%-18.57%) among those in inpatient settings or referred for liver biopsy (31 studies). Regionally, higher prevalence rates in high-risk settings were observed in North America and Australia (18.38%; 95% CI: 9.06%-33.75%), followed by Europe (10.16%; 95% CI: 5.71%-17.44%) and Asia (9.12%; 95% CI: 6.11%-13.40%) (p = 0.007). Notably, ICD-based diagnoses indicated a significantly higher prevalence of cirrhosis (27.43%) compared to those diagnosed by liver biopsy (13.24%; p < 0.001). The pooled all-cause mortality rate for MASLD-cirrhosis patients was estimated at 7.91 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 4.44-13.71) (9 studies).

Conclusions: This meta-analysis underscores the substantial prevalence of cirrhosis among MASLD patients and highlights significant geographic and demographic variability, calling for improved screening and management strategies.