Risk and resilience profiles and their transition pathways in the ABCD Study.

The transition from childhood to adolescence presents elevated risks for the onset of psychopathology in youth. Given the multilayered nature of development, the present study leverages the longitudinal, population-based Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study to derive ecologically informed risk/resilience profiles based on multilevel influences (e.g., neighborhood and family socioeconomic resources, parenting, school characteristics) and their transition pathways and examine their associations with psychopathology. Latent profile analysis characterized risk/resilience profiles at each time point (i.e., baseline, Year-1, Year-2); latent transition analysis estimated the most likely transition pathway for each individual. Analysis of covariance was used to examine associations between profile membership at baseline (i.e., ages 9-11) and psychopathology, both concurrently and at Year-2 follow-up. Further, we examined the associations between profile transition pathways and Year-2 psychopathology. Four distinct profiles emerged across time - High-SES High-Protective, High-SES Low-Protective, Low-SES High-Family-Risk, and Low-SES High-Protective. Despite reasonably high stability, significant transition over time among profiles was detected. Profile membership at baseline significantly correlated with concurrent psychopathology and predicted psychopathology 2 years later. Additionally, profile transition pathways significantly predicted Year-2 psychopathology, exemplifying equifinality and multifinality. Characterizing and tracing shifts in ecologically informed risk/resilience influences, our findings have the potential to inform more precise intervention efforts in youth.