Prediction of lateral lymph node metastasis in rectal cancer patients based on MRI using clinical, deep transfer learning, radiomic, and fusion models.

Introduction: Lateral lymph node (LLN) metastasis in rectal cancer significantly affects patient treatment and prognosis. This study aimed to comprehensively compare the performance of various predictive models in predicting LLN metastasis.

Methods: In this retrospective study, data from 152 rectal cancer patients who underwent lateral lymph node (LLN) dissection were collected. The cohort was divided into a training set (n=86) from Tianjin Union Medical Center (TUMC), and two testing cohorts: testing cohort (TUMC) (n=37) and testing cohort from Gansu Provincial Hospital (GSPH) (n=29). A clinical model was established using clinical data; deep transfer learning models and radiomics models were developed using MRI images of the primary tumor (PT) and largest short-axis LLN (LLLN), visible LLN (VLLN) areas, along with a fusion model that integrates features from both deep transfer learning and radiomics. The diagnostic value of these models for LLN metastasis was analyzed based on postoperative LLN pathology.

Results: Models based on LLLN image information generally outperformed those based on PT image information. Rradiomics models based on LLLN demonstrated improved robustness on external testing cohorts compared to those based on VLLN. Specifically, the radiomics model based on LLLN imaging achieved an AUC of 0.741 in the testing cohort (TUMC) and 0.713 in the testing cohort (GSPH) with the extra trees algorithm.

Conclusion: Data from LLLN is a more reliable basis for predicting LLN metastasis in rectal cancer patients with suspicious LLN metastasis than data from PT. Among models performing adequately on the internal test set, all showed declines on the external test set, with LLLN_Rad_Models being less affected by scanning parameters and data sources.