Association between a history of major osteoporotic fractures and subsequent hip fracture: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Purpose: A history of fractures involving the distal radius, proximal humerus, spine, and hip may be associated with the incidence of subsequent hip fractures in older people. However, a comprehensive summary of this association using a rigorous methodology is lacking. Our objective was to systematically review the literature and examine the association between four major osteoporotic fractures and subsequent hip fractures in individuals aged ≥ 50 years.

Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, ICTRP, and ClinicalTrials.gov on February 15, 2023. The search included cohort or case-control studies investigating the association between these four types of osteoporotic fractures and subsequent hip fractures. We pooled the hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using the random-effects model. We used the Quality In Prognosis Studies tool to assess the risk of bias in the included studies, and the grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation approach to determine the certainty of evidence.

Results: The selection process identified 48 studies for qualitative synthesis and 23 studies (2,239,217 participants) for meta-analysis. The overall methodological quality had a low risk of bias in 65% of the included studies. The association between a history of major osteoporotic fractures and subsequent hip fracture varied, with a high certainty of evidence for a history of proximal humerus and hip fractures (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.75-2.33 and 2.86, 95% CI 1.92-4.25, respectively), moderate certainty for distal radius fractures (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.53-1.81), and low certainty for spine fractures (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.38-1.69).

Conclusions: In conclusion, a history of major osteoporotic fractures, particularly distal radius, proximal humerus, and hip fractures, is associated with subsequent hip fractures in older adults. Further research is needed to verify the association between a history of spine fracture and subsequent hip fractures.

Protocol Registration: Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/7fjuc ).