Identifying a group of factors predicting cognitive impairment among older adults.

Background: Cognitive impairment has multiple risk factors spanning several domains, but few studies have evaluated risk factor clusters. We aimed to identify naturally occurring clusters of risk factors of poor cognition among middle-aged and older adults and evaluate associations between measures of cognition and these risk factor clusters.

Methods: We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III (training dataset, n = 4074) and the NHANES 2011-2014 (validation dataset, n = 2510). Risk factors were selected based on the literature. We used both traditional logistic models and support vector machine methods to construct a composite score of risk factor clusters. We evaluated associations between the risk score and cognitive performance using the logistic model by estimating odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results: Using the training dataset, we developed a composite risk score that predicted undiagnosed cognitive decline based on ten selected predictive risk factors including age, waist circumference, healthy eating index, race, education, income, physical activity, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and annual visit to dentist. The risk score was significantly associated with poor cognitive performance both in the training dataset (OR Tertile 3 verse tertile 1 = 8.15, 95% CI: 5.36-12.4) and validation dataset (OR Tertile 3 verse tertile 1 = 4.31, 95% CI: 2.62-7.08). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the predictive model was 0.74 and 0.77 for crude model and model adjusted for age, sex, and race.

Conclusion: The model based on selected risk factors may be used to identify high risk individuals with cognitive impairment.