Measuring instability in chronic human intracortical neural recordings towards stable, long-term brain-computer interfaces.

Intracortical brain-computer interfaces (iBCIs) enable people with tetraplegia to gain intuitive cursor control from movement intentions. To translate to practical use, iBCIs should provide reliable performance for extended periods of time. However, performance begins to degrade as the relationship between kinematic intention and recorded neural activity shifts compared to when the decoder was initially trained. In addition to developing decoders to better handle long-term instability, identifying when to recalibrate will also optimize performance. We propose a method to measure instability in neural data without needing to label user intentions. Longitudinal data were analyzed from two BrainGate2 participants with tetraplegia as they used fixed decoders to control a computer cursor spanning 142 days and 28 days, respectively. We demonstrate a measure of instability that correlates with changes in closed-loop cursor performance solely based on the recorded neural activity (Pearson = 0.93 and 0.72, respectively). This result suggests a strategy to infer online iBCI performance from neural data alone and to determine when recalibration should take place for practical long-term use.