Assessing risk of recurrent small bowel obstruction after non-operative management in patients with history of intra-abdominal surgery: a population-based comprehensive analysis in Taiwan.

Background: Despite a significant 30% ten-year readmission rate for SBO patients, investigations into recurrent risk factors after non-operative management are scarce. The study aims to generate a risk factor scoring system, the 'Small Bowel Obstruction Recurrence Score' (SBORS), predicting 6-month recurrence of small bowel obstruction (SBO) after successful non-surgical management in patients who have history of intra-abdominal surgery.

Methods: We analyzed data from patients aged ≥ 18 with a history of intra-abdominal surgery and diagnosed with SBO (ICD-9 code: 560, 568) and were successful treated non-surgically between 2004 and 2008. Participants were divided into model-derivation (80%) and validation (20%) group.

Results: We analyzed 23,901 patients and developed the SBORS based on factors including the length of hospital stay > 4 days, previous operations > once, hemiplegia, extra-abdominal and intra-abdominal malignancy, esophagogastric surgery and intestino-colonic surgery. Scores > 2 indicated higher rates and risks of recurrence within 6 months (12.96% vs. 7.27%, OR 1.898, p < 0.001 in model-derivation group, 12.60% vs. 7.05%, OR 1.901, p < 0.001 in validation group) with a significantly increased risk of mortality and operative events for recurrent episodes. The SBORS model demonstrated good calibration and acceptable discrimination, with an area under curve values of 0.607 and 0.599 for the score generation and validation group, respectively.

Conclusions: We established the effective 'SBORS' to predict 6-month SBO recurrence risk in patients who have history of intra-abdominal surgery and have been successfully managed non-surgically for the initial obstruction event. Those with scores > 2 face higher recurrence rates and operative risks after successful non-surgical management.