Soil temperature and moisture as key controls of phosphorus export in mountain watersheds.

Oligotrophic mountain lakes act as sensitive indicators of landscape-scale changes in mountain regions due to their low nutrient concentration and remote, relatively undisturbed watersheds. Recent research shows that phosphorus (P) concentrations are increasing in mountain lakes around the world, creating more mesotrophic states and altering lake ecosystem structure and function. The relative importance of atmospheric deposition and climate-driven changes to local biogeochemistry in driving these shifts is not well established. In this study, we test whether increasing temperatures in watershed soils may be contributing to the observed increases in mountain lake P loading. Specifically, we test whether higher soil temperatures increase P mobilization from mountain soils by accelerating the rate of geochemical weathering and soil organic matter decomposition. We used paired soil incubation (lab) and soil transplant (field) experiments with mountain soils from around the western United States to test the effects of warming on rain-leachable P concentration, soil P mobilization, and soil respiration. Our results show that while higher temperature can increase soil P mobilization, low soil moisture can limit the effects of warming in some situations. Soils with lower bulk densities, higher pH, lower aluminum oxide contents, and lower ratios of carbon to nitrogen had much higher rain-leachable P concentration across all sites and experimental treatments. Together, these results suggest that mountain watersheds with high-P soils and relatively high soil moisture could have the largest increases in P mobilization with warming. Consequently, lakes and streams in such watersheds could become especially susceptible to soil-driven eutrophication as temperatures rise.