Future cardiometabolic implications of insulin hypersecretion in response to oral glucose: a prospective cohort study.

Background: The cardiometabolic implications of postprandial hyperinsulinemia are unclear with recent studies suggesting both adverse and beneficial associations. We aimed to evaluate the longitudinal cardiometabolic implications of the post-challenge insulin secretory response over 4-years follow-up.

Methods: In this prospective cohort study, conducted in Toronto (Ontario, Canada), women comprising the full range of antepartum glucose tolerance were recruited in pregnancy (at the time of glucose tolerance screening, late in the second trimester) to undergo cardiometabolic testing in the years thereafter. Participants underwent oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT) at 1-year, 3-years, and 5-years postpartum, enabling serial assessment of cardiovascular risk factors, glucose tolerance, insulin sensitivity or resistance (Matsuda index, HOMA-IR), and beta-cell function-via Insulin Secretion-Sensitivity Index-2 (ISSI-2) and insulinogenic index/HOMA-IR (IGI/HOMA-IR). Baseline post-challenge insulinemia was assessed with the corrected insulin response (CIR) at 1-year. Cardiometabolic factors were compared between baseline CIR tertiles.

Findings: Between Oct 23, 2003 and March 31, 2014, 306 women were enrolled. In this study population, there was progressive worsening of waist circumference (p = 0.016), HDL (p = 0.018), CRP (p = 0.006), and insulin sensitivity (p < 0.001) from the lowest to middle to highest tertile of CIR at 1-year. However, these adverse features were accompanied by progressively better beta-cell function (both p < 0.001), coupled with lower fasting and 2-h glucose on the OGTT (both p < 0.001). On adjusted longitudinal analyses, higher CIR tertile at 1-year was independently associated with (i) higher ISSI-2 and IGI/HOMA-IR and (ii) lower fasting and 2-h glucose at both 3-years and 5-years (all p < 0.001), but was not associated with BMI, waist, lipids, CRP or insulin sensitivity/resistance. The highest CIR tertile at 1-year predicted lower risk of pre-diabetes or diabetes at both 3-years (adjusted OR = 0.19; 95% CI 0.08-0.45) and 5-years (aOR = 0.18; 0.08-0.39), relative to the lowest tertile.

Interpretation: A robust post-challenge insulin secretory response does not indicate adverse cardiometabolic health but, rather, portends favourable metabolic function in the years to come. Future long-term study of the implications of the post-challenge insulinemic response is warranted.

Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.