A deep learning model, NAFNet, predicts adverse pathology and recurrence in prostate cancer using MRIs.

We aimed to apply a potent deep learning network, NAFNet, to predict adverse pathology events and biochemical recurrence-free survival (bRFS) based on pre-treatment MRI imaging. 514 prostate cancer patients from six tertiary hospitals throughout China from 2017 and 2021 were included. A total of 367 patients from Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center with whole-mount histopathology of radical prostatectomy specimens were assigned to the internal set, and cancer lesions were delineated with whole-mount pathology as the reference. The external test set included 147 patients with BCR data from five other institutes. The prediction model (NAFNet-classifier) and integrated nomogram (DL-nomogram) were constructed based on NAFNet. We then compared DL-nomogram with radiology score (PI-RADS), and clinical score (Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score (CAPRA)). After training and validation in the internal set, ROC curves in the external test set showed that NAFNet-classifier alone outperformed ResNet50 in predicting adverse pathology. The DL-nomogram, including the NAFNet-classifier, clinical T stage and biopsy results, showed the highest AUC (0.915, 95% CI: 0.871-0.959) and accuracy (0.850) compared with the PI-RADS and CAPRA scores. Additionally, the DL-nomogram outperformed the CAPRA score with a higher C-index (0.732, P < 0.001) in predicting bRFS. Based on this newly-developed deep learning network, NAFNet, our DL-nomogram could accurately predict adverse pathology and poor prognosis, providing a potential AI tools in medical imaging risk stratification.