Prognostic models for upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma patients after radical nephroureterectomy based on a novel systemic immune-inflammation score with machine learning.

Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the clinical significance of a novel systemic immune-inflammation score (SIIS) to predict oncological outcomes in upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma(UTUC) after radical nephroureterectomy(RNU).

Method: The clinical data of 483 patients with nonmetastatic UTUC underwent surgery in our center were analyzed. Five inflammation-related biomarkers were screened in the Lasso-Cox model and then aggregated to generate the SIIS based on the regression coefficients. Overall survival (OS) was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analyses. The Cox proportional hazards regression and random survival forest model were adopted to build the prognostic model. Then we established an effective nomogram for UTUC after RNU based on SIIS. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC), and calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the net benefits of the nomogram at different threshold probabilities.

Result: According to the median value SIIS computed by the lasso Cox model, the high-risk group had worse OS (p<0.0001) than low risk-group. Variables with a minimum depth greater than the depth threshold or negative variable importance were excluded, and the remaining six variables were included in the model. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of the Cox and random survival forest models were 0.801 and 0.872 for OS at five years, respectively. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that elevated SIIS was significantly associated with poorer OS (p<0.001). In terms of predicting overall survival, a nomogram that considered the SIIS and clinical prognostic factors performed better than the AJCC staging.

Conclusion: The pretreatment levels of SIIS were an independent predictor of prognosis in upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma after RNU. Therefore, incorporating SIIS into currently available clinical parameters helps predict the long-term survival of UTUC.