Population genomics implies potential public health risk of two non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae lineages.

Diarrheal cases caused by non-toxigenic Vibrio cholerae have been reported globally. Lineages L3b and L9, characterized as ctxAB-negative and tcpA-positive (CNTP), pose the highest risk and have caused long-term epidemics in different regions worldwide. From 2001 to 2018, two waves (2001-2012 and 2013-2018) of epidemic caused by non-toxigenic V. cholerae occurred in the developed city of Hangzhou, China. In this study, through the integrated analysis of 207 genomes of Hangzhou isolates from these two waves (119 and 88) and 1573 publicly available genomes, we showed that L3b and L9 lineages together caused the second wave as had happened in the first wave, but the dominant lineage shifted from L3b (first wave: 69%) to L9 (second wave: 50%). We further found that the genotype of a key virulence gene, tcpF, in the L9 lineage during the second wave shifted to type I, which may have enhanced bacterial colonization in humans and potentially promoted the pathogenic lineage shift. Moreover, we found that 21% of L3b and L9 isolates had changed to predicted cholera toxin producers, providing evidence that gain of complete CTXφ-carrying ctxAB genes, rather than ctxAB gain in pre-CTXφ-carrying isolates, led to the transition. Taken together, our findings highlight the possible public health risk associated with L3b and L9 lineages due to their potential to cause long-term epidemics and turn into high-virulent cholera toxin producers, which necessitates a more comprehensive and unbiased sampling in further disease control efforts.