Branch duct-intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs): an MRI-based radiomic model to determine the malignant degeneration potential.

Background: Branch duct-intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) are the most common pancreatic cystic tumors and have a low risk of malignant transformation. Features able to early identify high-risk BD-IPMNs are lacking, and guidelines currently rely on the occurrence of worrisome features (WF) and high-risk stigmata (HRS).

Aim: In our study, we aimed to use a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomic model to identify features linked to a higher risk of malignant degeneration, and whether these appear before the occurrence of WF and HRS.

Methods: We retrospectively evaluated adult patients with a known BD-IPMN who had had at least two contrast-enhanced MRI studies at our center and a 24-month minimum follow-up time. MRI acquisition protocol for the two examinations included pre- and post-contrast phases and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)/apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) map. Patients were divided into two groups according to the development of WF or HRS at the end of the follow-up (Group 0 = no WF or HRS; Group 1 = WF or HRS). We segmented the MRI images and quantitative features were extracted and compared between the two groups. Features that showed significant differences (SF) were then included in a LASSO regression method to build a radiomic-based predictive model.

Results: We included 50 patients: 31 in Group 0 and 19 in Group 1. No patients in this cohort developed HRS. At baseline, 47, 67, 38, and 68 SF were identified for pre-contrast T1-weighted (T1-W) sequence, post-contrast T1-W sequence, T2-weighted (T2- W) sequence, and ADC map, respectively. At the end of follow-up, we found 69, 78, 53, and 91 SF, respectively. The radiomic-based predictive model identified 16 SF: more particularly, 5 SF for pre-contrast T1-W sequence, 6 for post-contrast T1-W sequence, 3 for T2-W sequence, and 2 for ADC.

Conclusion: We identified radiomic features that correlate significantly with WF in patients with BD-IPMNs undergoing contrast-enhanced MRI. Our MRI-based radiomic model can predict the occurrence of WF.