Predicting the Need for Surgery in Uncomplicated Adhesive Small Bowel Obstruction: A Scoring Tool.

Introduction: Nonoperative treatment can be attempted for uncomplicated adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO), but carries a risk of delayed surgery. Highlighting initial parameters predicting risk of failure of nonoperative management would be of great interest.

Methods: Patients initially managed conservatively for uncomplicated ASBO were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify predictive failure's factors. Based on the risk factors, a score was created and then prospectively validated in a different patients' population.

Results: Among 171 patients included, 98 (57.3%) were successfully managed conservatively. In a multivariate analysis, three independent nonoperative management failure's factors were identified: Charlson Index ≥4 (P = 0.016), distal obstruction (P = 0.009), and maximum small bowel diameter over vertical abdominal diameter ratio >0.34 (P = 0.023). A score of two or three was associated with a risk of surgery of 51.4% or 70.3% in the retrospective analysis and 62.2% or 75% in the validation cohort, respectively.

Conclusions: This clinical-radiological score may help guide surgical decision-making in uncomplicated ASBO. A high score (≥2) was predictive of failure of nonoperative management. This tool could assist surgeons to determine who would benefit from early surgery.