Acute association between heatwaves and stillbirth in six US states.

Background: Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and may acutely increase the risk of stillbirth, a rare and severe pregnancy outcome.

Objectives: Examine the association between multiple heatwave metrics and stillbirth in six U.S. states.

Methods: Data were collected from fetal death and birth records in California (1996-2017), Florida (1991-2017), Georgia (1994-2017), Kansas (1991-2017), New Jersey (1991-2015), and Oregon (1991-2017). Cases were matched to controls 1:4 based on maternal race/ethnicity, maternal education, and county, and exposure windows were aligned (gestational week prior to stillbirth). County-level temperature data were obtained from Daymet and linked to cases and controls by residential county and the exposure window. Five heatwave metrics (1 categorical, 3 dichotomous, 1 continuous) were created using different combinations of the duration and intensity of hot days (mean daily temperature exceeding the county-specific 97.5 percentile) during the exposure window, as well as a continuous measure of mean temperature during the exposure window modeled using natural splines to allow for nonlinear associations. State-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using conditional logistic regression models. State-specific results were pooled using a fixed-effects meta-analysis.

Results: In our data set of 140,428 stillbirths (553,928 live birth controls), three of the five heatwave metrics examined were not associated with stillbirth. However, four consecutive hot days during the previous week was associated with a 3% increase in stillbirth risk (CI: 1.01, 1.06), and a 1 °C average increase over the threshold was associated with a 10% increase in stillbirth risk (CI: 1.04, 1.17). In continuous temperature analyses, there was a slight increased risk of stillbirth associated with extremely hot temperatures (≥ 35 °C).

Discussion: Most heat wave definitions examined were not associated with acute changes in stillbirth risk; however, the most extreme heatwave durations and temperatures were associated with a modest increase in stillbirth risk.