The predictive value of procalcitonin combined with C-reactive protein and D dimer in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate the predictive value of a parametric model constructed by using procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP) and D dimer within 48 h after admission in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

Methods: A total of 238 patients were enrolled, of which 170 patients were moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP+SAP). The concentrations of procalcitonin, CRP and D dimer within 48 h after admission were obtained. The predictive value of the parametric model, modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI), bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, modified Marshall score and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score of all patients was calculated and compared.

Results: The area under receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, Youden index and critical value of the parametric model for predicting MSAP+SAP were 0.853 (95% CI, 0.804-0.903), 84.71%, 70.59%, 55.30% and 0.2833, respectively. The sensitivity of the parametric model was higher than that of MCTSI (84.00%), Ranson score (73.53%), BISAP (56.47%), APACHE II score (27.65%), modified Marshall score (17.06%) and SIRS score (78.24%); the specificity of it were higher than that of MCTSI (52.94%) and Ranson score (67.65%), but lower than BISAP (73.53%), APACHE II score (76.47%), modified Marshall score (100%)and SIRS score (100.00%).

Conclusion: The parametric model constructed by using procalcitonin 48 h, CRP 48 h and D dimer 48 h can be regarded as an evaluation model for predicting moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.