CT-Based Sarcopenic Nomogram for Predicting Progressive Disease in Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

Background: It is prudent to identify the risk for progressive disease (PD) in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who undergo platinum-based chemotherapy. The present study aimed to develop a CT imaging-based sarcopenic nomogram for predicting the risk of PD prior to chemotherapy treatment.

Methods: We retrospectively enrolled patients with NSCLC who underwent platinum-based chemotherapy. Imaging-based body composition parameters such as skeletal muscle index (SMI) for assessment of sarcopenia were obtained from pre-chemotherapy chest CT images at the level of the eleventh thoracic vertebral body (T11). Sarcopenic nomogram was constructed using multivariate logistic regression and performance of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curve, and decision curve.

Results: Sixty (14.7%) of the 408 patients in the study cohort developed PD during chemotherapy. The prediction nomogram for developing PD achieved a moderate efficiency with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.69-0.80) for the training cohort, and 0.76 (95%CI: 0.68-0.84) for the validation cohort, as well as a good performance of consistence (bootstrap for training cohort: 0.75 ± 0.02; validation cohort: 0.74 ± 0.06). Favorable clinical application was observed in the decision curve analysis.

Conclusion: Our CT-based sarcopenic nomogram showed the potential for an individualized prediction of progression for patients with NSCLC receiving platinum-based chemotherapy.