Network analysis of swine movements in a multi-site pig production system in Iowa, USA.

Pig production in the United States is based on multi-site systems in which pigs are transported between farms after the conclusion of each particular production phase. Although ground transportation is a critical component of the pork supply chain, it might constitute a potential route of infectious disease dissemination. Here, we used a time series network analysis to: (1) describe pig movement flow in a multi-site production system in Iowa, USA, (2) conduct percolation analysis to investigate network robustness to interventions for diseases with different transmissibility, and (3) assess the potential impact of each farm type on disease dissemination across the system. Movement reports from 2014-2016 were provided by Iowa Select Farms, Iowa Fall, IA. A total of 76,566 shipments across sites was analyzed, and time series network analyses with temporal resolution of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 36 months were considered. The general topological properties of networks with resolution of 1, 3, 6, and 12 months were compared with the whole period static network (36 months) and included the following features: number of nodes and edges, degree assortativity, density, average path length, diameter, clustering coefficients, giant strongly connected component, giant weakly connected component, giant in component, and giant out component. Small-world and scale-free topologies, centrality parameters, and percolation analysis were investigated for the networks with 1-month window. Networks' robustness to interventions was assessed by using the Basic Reproduction Number (R). Centrality parameters indicate that gilt development units (GDU), nursery, and sow farms have more central role in the pig production hierarchical structure. Therefore, they are potentially major factors of introduction and spread of diseases over the system. Wean-to-finishing and finishing sites displayed high in-degree values, indicating that they are more susceptible to be infected. Percolation analysis combined with general properties (i.e. heavy-tailed distributions and degree disassortative) suggested that networks with 1-month time resolution were highly responsive to interventions. Furthermore, the characteristics of a disease should have strong implications in the biosecurity practices across production sites. For instance, biosecurity practices should be focused on sow farms for highly contagious disease (e.g., foot and mouth disease), while it should target nursery sites in the case of a less contagious diseases (i.e. mycobacterial infections). Understanding the patterns of swine movements is crucial for the swine industry decision-making in the case of an epidemic, as well as to design cost-effective approaches to monitor, prevent, control and eradicate infectious diseases in multi-site systems.