Caribbean climate change vulnerability: Lessons from an aggregate index approach.

The study examines the potential influence of sub-regional variations in climate, and specifically heavy rain events, in determining relative vulnerabilities of locations in twelve Caribbean countries. An aggregate vulnerability index, referred to as the Caribbean Vulnerability Score (CVS), is created using historical demographic and socioeconomic data and climate data representing extreme rain events. Four scenarios are explored. Firstly, comparative vulnerabilities are determined when heavy rainfall is incorporated in CVS versus when it is excluded. The impact of climate change is also investigated using future climate data derived from statistical downscaling but holding demographic and socioeconomic sub-indices constant. The analysis is repeated with projections of future demographic structure from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway data (SSP3), future climate projections and constant socioeconomic. Finally, the sensitivity of the results is examined with respect to applying different weights i.e. versus using equal weights for the climate and non-climatic components of CVS as is done for the first three scenarios. Results suggest that the inclusion of historical susceptibility to rainfall extremes influences relative vulnerabilities within the Caribbean when compared to the rankings of vulnerability derived using only socioeconomic and demographic inputs. In some cases significant increases in relative rankings are noted. Projected changes in the intensity of rain events across the Caribbean region in the 2030s and 2050s, do not significantly alter the top and lowest ranked vulnerable locations when demographic and socioeconomic indices are held constant. Changes may however occur in the order of the top ranked locations dependent on scenario and time slice. In general, future shifts in relative vulnerabilities were found to be dependent on (i) changes in both future climate and demographic scenarios, (ii) the time horizons being considered, and (iii) the weighting assigned to climate in the future.