An index of Chinese surname distribution and its implications for population dynamics.

Objective: We propose an index to characterize the key feature of Chinese surname distributions and investigate its implications for population structure and dynamics.

Materials And Methods: The surname dataset was obtained from the National Citizen Identity Information Center, which contains 1.28 billion Chinese citizens enrolled in 2007, excluding those of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan. An index, the coverage ratio of stretched exponential distribution (CRSED), is proposed based on the crossover point of stretched exponential truncated power-law distribution, where the stretched exponential term and the power-law term contribute equally. We use multidimensional scaling technique to demonstrate the dependence of the similarity of one prefecture to the others on the CRSED.

Results: The CRSEDs of 362 prefectures exhibit an uneven distribution. The consistency of this index is evident by strong positive correlations of CRSEDs at the three administrative levels. This new index has a strong negative correlation with the proportion of the rare surnames. The prefectures with similar CRSEDs tend to adjoin each other on the administrative map, resulting in several distinct regions, each of which shares similar terrain features or historical migrations. The prefectures with lower CRSEDs are more dissimilar to the other prefectures, while the ones with higher CRSEDs are more similar to the others.

Discussion: The population dynamics of the prefectures with higher CRSEDs are more likely dominated by migratory movements, the dominant evolutionary forces of the prefectures with lower CRSEDs can be attributed to drift and mutation.