Cascaded neural networks improving fish species prediction accuracy: the role of the biotic information.

Species distribution is the result of complex interactions that involve environmental parameters as well as biotic factors. However, methodological approaches that consider the use of biotic variables during the prediction process are still largely lacking. Here, a cascaded Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) approach is proposed in order to increase the accuracy of fish species occurrence estimates and a case study for Leucos aula in NE Italy is presented as a demonstration case. Potentially useful biotic information (i.e. occurrence of other species) was selected by means of tetrachoric correlation analysis and on the basis of the improvements it allowed to obtain relative to models based on environmental variables only. The prediction accuracy of the L. aula model based on environmental variables only was improved by the addition of occurrence data for A. arborella and S. erythrophthalmus. While biotic information was needed to train the ANNs, the final cascaded ANN model was able to predict L. aula better than a conventional ANN using environmental variables only as inputs. Results highlighted that biotic information provided by occurrence estimates for non-target species whose distribution can be more easily and accurately modeled may play a very useful role, providing additional predictive variables to target species distribution models.