Publications by authors named "Siva Athreya"

Disease surveillance systems provide early warnings of disease outbreaks before they become public health emergencies. However, pandemics containment would be challenging due to the complex immunity landscape created by multiple variants. Genomic surveillance is critical for detecting novel variants with diverse characteristics and importation/emergence times.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Objective: Demonstrate the feasibility of using the existing sentinel surveillance infrastructure to conduct the second round of the serial cross-sectional sentinel-based population survey. Assess active infection, seroprevalence, and their evolution in the general population across Karnataka. Identify local variations for locally appropriate actions.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

We provide a methodology by which an epidemiologist may arrive at an optimal design for a survey whose goal is to estimate the disease burden in a population. For serosurveys with a given budget of rupees, a specified set of tests with costs, sensitivities, and specificities, we show the existence of optimal designs in four different contexts, including the well known c-optimal design. Usefulness of the results are illustrated via numerical examples.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Objective: To estimate the burden of active infection and anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Karnataka, India, and to assess variation across geographical regions and risk groups.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 16,416 people covering three risk groups was conducted between 3-16 September 2020 using the state of Karnataka's infrastructure of 290 healthcare facilities across all 30 districts. Participants were further classified into risk subgroups and sampled using stratified sampling.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

We study the effectiveness and limitations of contact-tracing, quarantine, and lockdown measures used in India to control the spread of COVID-19 infections. Using data provided in the media bulletins of Government of Karnataka we observe that the so called rule holds for secondary infections and classify them into clusters. Using a mixture of Poisson with Gamma model we establish that clusters show variation in deceased rates ( ), low reproduction numbers ( ), small dispersion( ), and that super-spreading events can occur.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF