Rapid antibiotic susceptibility testing for urinary tract infections in secondary care in England: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Objectives: To perform a model-based cost-effectiveness evaluation of a rapid antimicrobial susceptibility test.

Design: A Markov model of a cohort of hospital inpatients with urinary tract infection (with inpatient numbers based on national administrative data from 1 April 2017 to 31 March 2019).

Setting: Urinary tract infections (UTI) in acute National Health Service (NHS) Trusts in England, from the perspective of the NHS Healthcare system, at a national level.

Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models.

Background: Key populations (KPs), including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and transgender women (TGW) experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition. The UNAIDS Global AIDS 2022 Update reported that one-quarter of all new HIV infections occurred among their non-KP sexual partners. However, this fraction relied on heuristics regarding the ratio of new infections that KPs transmitted to their non-KP partners to the new infections acquired among KPs (herein referred to as "infection ratios").

Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: The distribution of new HIV infections among key populations, including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) are essential information to guide an HIV response, but data are limited in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We analyzed empirically derived and mathematical model-based estimates of HIV incidence among key populations and compared with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates.

Methods: We estimated HIV incidence among FSW and MSM in SSA by combining meta-analyses of empirical key population HIV incidence relative to the total population incidence with key population size estimates (KPSE) and HIV prevalence.

Economic evaluation of improving HIV self-testing among MSM in China using a crowdsourced intervention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Objectives: Crowdsourcing, which taps into the wisdom of crowds, has been successful in generating strategies to enhance HIV self-testing (HIVST) uptake. We determined the cost-effectiveness of a crowdsourced intervention (one-off or annual) compared with a control scenario (no crowdsourcing) among MSM living in China.

Design: Economic evaluation.

A scoping review of antibiotic use practices and drivers of inappropriate antibiotic use in animal farms in WHO Southeast Asia region.

Antibiotic use (ABU) plays an important role in the proliferation of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Global antimicrobial consumption in food production is projected to rise by 67% from 2010 to 2030, but available estimates are limited by the scarcity of ABU data and absence of global surveillance systems. The WHO South-East Asia (WHO SEA) region is at high risk of emergence of AMR, likely driven by intensifying farm operations and worsening ABU hotspots.

Modelling the effect of COVID-19 mass vaccination on acute hospital admissions.

Background: Managing high levels of acute COVID-19 bed occupancy can affect the quality of care provided to both affected patients and those requiring other hospital services. Mass vaccination has offered a route to reduce societal restrictions while protecting hospitals from being overwhelmed. Yet, early in the mass vaccination effort, the possible impact on future bed pressures remained subject to considerable uncertainty.

The impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV transmission and control among men who have sex with men in China.

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China, over a one- and five-year time horizon.

Methods: Regional data from China indicated that the number of MSM undergoing facility-based HIV testing reduced by 59% during the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside reductions in ART initiation (34%), numbers of all sexual partners (62%) and consistency of condom use (25%), but initial data indicated no change in viral suppression.

One Health drivers of antibacterial resistance: Quantifying the relative impacts of human, animal and environmental use and transmission.

Objectives: Antibacterial resistance (ABR) is a major global health security threat, with a disproportionate burden on lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs). It is not understood how 'One Health', where human health is co-dependent on animal health and the environment, might impact the burden of ABR in LMICs. Thailand's 2017 "National Strategic Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance" (NSP-AMR) aims to reduce AMR morbidity by 50% through 20% reductions in human and 30% in animal antibacterial use (ABU).

The Value of Triage during Periods of Intense COVID-19 Demand: Simulation Modeling Study.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many intensive care units have been overwhelmed by unprecedented levels of demand. Notwithstanding ethical considerations, the prioritization of patients with better prognoses may support a more effective use of available capacity in maximizing aggregate outcomes. This has prompted various proposed triage criteria, although in none of these has an objective assessment been made in terms of impact on number of lives and life-years saved.

Modelling the impact of an HIV testing intervention on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China.

Objectives: An intervention developed through participatory crowdsourcing methods increased HIV self-testing among men who have sex with men [MSM; relative risk (RR) = 1.89]. We estimated the long-term impact of this intervention on HIV transmission among MSM in four cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinan and Qingdao).

Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capacity requirements in South West England: a mathematical modelling framework.

Objectives: To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West England (SW) as an example case.

Design: Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental mathematical model. Latin hypercube sampling and maximum likelihood estimation were used to calibrate to cumulative cases and cumulative deaths.

Estimating the impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV transmission and control among men who have sex with men in China.

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China. Methods Regional data from China indicated that the number of MSM undergoing facility-based HIV testing reduced by 59% during the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside reductions in ART initiation (34%), numbers of sexual partners (62%) and consistency of condom use (25%).

Interactions between immunotoxicants and parasite stress: Implications for host health.

Many organisms face a wide variety of biotic and abiotic stressors which reduce individual survival, interacting to further reduce fitness. Here we studied the effects of two such interacting stressors: immunotoxicant exposure and parasite infection. We model the dynamics of a within-host infection and the associated immune response of an individual.

Stress-mediated Allee effects can cause the sudden collapse of honey bee colonies.

The recent rapid decline in global honey bee populations could have significant implications for ecological systems, economics and food security. No single cause of honey bee collapse has yet to be identified, although pesticides, mites and other pathogens have all been shown to have a sublethal effect. We present a model of a functioning bee hive and introduce external stress to investigate the impact on the regulatory processes of recruitment to the forager class, social inhibition and the laying rate of the queen.