A horizon scan of biological conservation issues for 2025.

We discuss the outcomes of our 16th horizon scan of issues that are novel or represent a considerable step-change and have the potential to substantially affect conservation of biological diversity in the coming decade. From an initial 96 topics, our international panel of 32 scientists and practitioners prioritised 15 issues. Technological advances are prominent, including metal and non-metal organic frameworks, deriving rare earth elements from macroalgae, synthetic gene drives in plants, and low-emission cement.

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2024.

We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents.

Social vulnerability of the people exposed to wildfires in U.S. West Coast states.

Understanding of the vulnerability of populations exposed to wildfires is limited. We used an index from the U.S.

Ecological inferences about marine mammals from passive acoustic data.

Monitoring on the basis of sound recordings, or passive acoustic monitoring, can complement or serve as an alternative to real-time visual or aural monitoring of marine mammals and other animals by human observers. Passive acoustic data can support the estimation of common, individual-level ecological metrics, such as presence, detection-weighted occupancy, abundance and density, population viability and structure, and behaviour. Passive acoustic data also can support estimation of some community-level metrics, such as species richness and composition.

Silbido profundo: An open source package for the use of deep learning to detect odontocete whistles.

This work presents an open-source matlab software package for exploiting recent advances in extracting tonal signals from large acoustic data sets. A whistle extraction algorithm published by Li, Liu, Palmer, Fleishman, Gillespie, Nosal, Shiu, Klinck, Cholewiak, Helble, and Roch [(2020). Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, July 19-24, Glasgow, Scotland, p.

A global biological conservation horizon scan of issues for 2023.

We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales.

Multiple-region, N-mixture community model to assess associations of riparian area, fragmentation, and species richness.

The associations of habitat area and fragmentation with species richness long have been major topics within community ecology. Recent discussion has focused on properly assessing fragmentation independent of habitat area (fragmentation per se), and on whether fragmentation has significant negative or positive associations with species richness. We created a novel, multiple-region, N-mixture community model (MNCM) to examine the relations of riparian area and fragmentation with species richness of breeding birds in mountain ranges within the Great Basin, Nevada, USA.

Improve automatic detection of animal call sequences with temporal context.

Many animals rely on long-form communication, in the form of songs, for vital functions such as mate attraction and territorial defence. We explored the prospect of improving automatic recognition performance by using the temporal context inherent in song. The ability to accurately detect sequences of calls has implications for conservation and biological studies.

A 2021 Horizon Scan of Emerging Global Biological Conservation Issues.

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level.

Publisher Correction: Deep neural networks for automated detection of marine mammal species.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Associations of breeding-bird abundance with climate vary among species and trait-based groups in southern California.

The responses of individuals and populations to climate change vary as functions of physiology, ecology, and plasticity. We investigated whether annual variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation was associated with relative abundances of breeding bird species at local and regional levels in southern California, USA, from 1968-2013. We tested our hypotheses that abundances were correlated positively with precipitation and negatively with temperature in this semiarid to arid region.

Deep neural networks for automated detection of marine mammal species.

Deep neural networks have advanced the field of detection and classification and allowed for effective identification of signals in challenging data sets. Numerous time-critical conservation needs may benefit from these methods. We developed and empirically studied a variety of deep neural networks to detect the vocalizations of endangered North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis).

Quantifying Ecological Integrity of Terrestrial Systems to Inform Management of Multiple-Use Public Lands in the United States.

The concept of ecological integrity has been applied widely to management of aquatic systems, but still is considered by many to be too vague and difficult to quantify to be useful for managing terrestrial systems, particularly across broad areas. Extensive public lands in the western United States are managed for diverse uses such as timber harvest, livestock grazing, energy development, and wildlife conservation, some of which may degrade ecological integrity. We propose a method for assessing ecological integrity on multiple-use lands that identifies the components of integrity and levels in the ecological hierarchy where the assessment will focus, and considers existing policies and management objectives.

Ten Years On: A Review of the First Global Conservation Horizon Scan.

Our first horizon scan, conducted in 2009, aimed to identify novel but poorly known issues with potentially significant effects on global conservation of biological diversity. Following completion of the tenth annual scan, we reviewed the 15 topics identified a decade ago and assessed their development in the scientific literature and news media. Five topics, including microplastic pollution, synthetic meat, and environmental applications of mobile-sensing technology, appeared to have had widespread salience and effects.

A Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation in 2019.

We present the results of our tenth annual horizon scan. We identified 15 emerging priority topics that may have major positive or negative effects on the future conservation of global biodiversity, but currently have low awareness within the conservation community. We hope to increase research and policy attention on these areas, improving the capacity of the community to mitigate impacts of potentially negative issues, and maximise the benefits of issues that provide opportunities.

Understanding the population consequences of disturbance.

Managing the nonlethal effects of disturbance on wildlife populations has been a long-term goal for decision makers, managers, and ecologists, and assessment of these effects is currently required by European Union and United States legislation. However, robust assessment of these effects is challenging. The management of human activities that have nonlethal effects on wildlife is a specific example of a fundamental ecological problem: how to understand the population-level consequences of changes in the behavior or physiology of individual animals that are caused by external stressors.

A 2018 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity.

This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect global biological diversity, natural capital and ecosystem services, and conservation efforts. Our diverse and international team, with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, as well as conservation science, practice, and policy, reviewed 117 potential issues. We identified the 15 that may have the greatest positive or negative effects but are not yet well recognised by the global conservation community.

A 2017 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity.

We present the results of our eighth annual horizon scan of emerging issues likely to affect global biological diversity, the environment, and conservation efforts in the future. The potential effects of these novel issues might not yet be fully recognized or understood by the global conservation community, and the issues can be regarded as both opportunities and risks. A diverse international team with collective expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, and conservation research, practice, and policy reviewed 100 potential issues and identified 15 that qualified as emerging, with potential substantial global effects.

A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016.

This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China.

Current Status of Development of Methods to Assess Effects of Cumulative or Aggregated Underwater Sounds on Marine Mammals.

There are no standards for assessment of the cumulative effects of underwater sound. Quantitative assessments typically consider a single source, whereas qualitative assessments may include multiple sources but rarely identify response variables. As a step toward understanding the cumulative effects of underwater sound, we assessed the aggregated sounds of multiple sources received by migrating bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus).

Expert Elicitation of Population-Level Effects of Disturbance.

Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis).

A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2015.

This paper presents the results of our sixth annual horizon scan, which aims to identify phenomena that may have substantial effects on the global environment, but are not widely known or well understood. A group of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The topics include a novel class of insecticide compounds, legalisation of recreational drugs, and the emergence of a new ecosystem associated with ice retreat in the Antarctic.