A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy.

Background: Monitoring the number of COVID-19 patients in hospital beds was a critical component of Australia's real-time surveillance strategy for the disease. From 2021 to 2023, we produced short-term forecasts of bed occupancy to support public health decision-making.

Methods: We present a model for forecasting the number of ward and intensive care unit (ICU) beds occupied by COVID-19 cases.

Statistical documentation for multi-disease, multi-domain platform trials: our experience with the Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform trial.

Platform trials have become widely adopted across multiple disease areas over recent years, however, guidelines for operationalising these trials have not kept pace. We outline a series of documents that summarise the statistical components, and implicit processes, of the Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform (SNAP) trial to provide an informal template for other researchers and reviewers of platform trials. We briefly summarise the content and role of the core protocol, statistical appendix, domain-specific appendices, simulation report, statistical implementation guides, data safety and monitoring committee (DSMC) reports, and domain-specific statistical analysis plans and final reports, and a transparent governance structure that ensures separate blinded and unblinded statistical teams.

Differential COVID-19 case ascertainment by age and vaccination status in Victoria, Australia: a serosurveillance and record linkage study.

Objectives: To compare serological evidence of prior severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with linked coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case notification data in Victoria, Australia, and to determine SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation activity based on prior infection and vaccination history.

Design, Setting, Participants: Four cross-sectional serological surveys were conducted between 30 June and 31 October 2022 (a period of Omicron BA.4/BA.

Evaluation of a Bayesian hierarchical pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for predicting parasitological outcomes in Phase 2 studies of new antimalarial drugs.

The rise of multidrug-resistant malaria requires accelerated development of novel antimalarial drugs. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) models relate blood antimalarial drug concentrations with the parasite-time profile to inform dosing regimens. We performed a simulation study to assess the utility of a Bayesian hierarchical mechanistic PK-PD model for predicting parasite-time profiles for a Phase 2 study of a new antimalarial drug, cipargamin.

Opportunities to strengthen respiratory virus surveillance systems in Australia: lessons learned from the COVID-19 response.

Disease surveillance data was critical in supporting public health decisions throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. At the same time, the unprecedented circumstances of the pandemic revealed many shortcomings of surveillance systems for viral respiratory pathogens. Strengthening of surveillance systems was identified as a priority for the recently established Australian Centre for Disease Control, which represents a critical opportunity to review pre-pandemic and pandemic surveillance practices, and to decide on future priorities, during both pandemic and inter-pandemic periods.

Characterising HIV-1 transmission in Victoria, Australia: a molecular epidemiological study.

Background: In Australia the incidence of HIV has declined steadily, yet sustained reduction of HIV transmission in this setting requires improved public health responses. As enhanced public health responses and prioritisation of resources may be guided by molecular epidemiological data, here we aimed to assess the applicability of these approaches in Victoria, Australia.

Methods: A comprehensive collection of HIV-1 sequences from individuals diagnosed with HIV in Victoria, Australia, between January 1st 2000 and December 31st 2020 were deidentified and used as the basis of our assessment.

The Asymptomatic Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Infections in Households: A Systematic Review.

Understanding the clinical spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection, including the asymptomatic fraction, is important as asymptomatic individuals are still able to infect other individuals and contribute to ongoing transmission. The WHO Unity Household transmission investigation (HHTI) protocol provides a platform for the prospective and systematic collection of high-quality clinical, epidemiological, serological and virological data from SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases and their household contacts. These data can be used to understand key severity and transmissibility parameters-including the asymptomatic proportion-in relation to local epidemic context and help inform public health response.

Immune imprinting in early life shapes cross-reactivity to influenza B virus haemagglutinin.

Influenza exposures early in life are believed to shape future susceptibility to influenza infections by imprinting immunological biases that affect cross-reactivity to future influenza viruses. However, direct serological evidence linked to susceptibility is limited. Here we analysed haemagglutination-inhibition titres in 1,451 cross-sectional samples collected between 1992 and 2020, from individuals born between 1917 and 2008, against influenza B virus (IBV) isolates from 1940 to 2021.

Erratum to "Learnings from the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19" [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 28 (2022) 100573].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.

Intermittent preventive treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine but not dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine modulates the relationship between inflammatory markers and adverse pregnancy outcomes in Malawi.

Women in malaria-endemic areas receive sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) as Intermittent Preventive Treatment in Pregnancy (IPTp) to reduce malaria. While dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) has superior antimalarial properties as IPTp, SP is associated with superior fetal growth. As maternal inflammation influences fetal growth, we investigated whether SP alters the relationship between inflammation and birth outcomes.

A Randomized Trial of Nafamostat for Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: Nafamostat mesylate is a potent in vitro antiviral agent that inhibits the host transmembrane protease serine 2 enzyme used by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 for cell entry. METHODS: This open-label, pragmatic, randomized clinical trial in Australia, New Zealand, and Nepal included noncritically ill hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Participants were randomly assigned to usual care or usual care plus nafamostat.

Anticoagulation Strategies in Non-Critically Ill Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: Optimal thromboprophylaxis for hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is uncertain. METHODS: In an open-label, adaptive platform trial, we randomly assigned hospitalized adults with Covid-19 to low-dose low-molecular-weight heparin thromboprophylaxis or intermediate-dose or low-dose plus aspirin. In response to external evidence, the aspirin intervention was discontinued and a therapeutic-dose arm added.

Mosquitoes provide a transmission route between possums and humans for Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia.

Buruli ulcer, a chronic subcutaneous infection caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, is increasing in prevalence in southeastern Australia. Possums are a local wildlife reservoir for M. ulcerans and, although mosquitoes have been implicated in transmission, it remains unclear how humans acquire infection.

Updating estimates of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria risk in response to changing land use patterns across Southeast Asia.

Background: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic parasite that causes malaria in humans. The pathogen has a natural host reservoir in certain macaque species and is transmitted to humans via mosquitoes of the Anopheles Leucosphyrus Group. The risk of human P.

A multi-criteria framework for disease surveillance site selection: case study for malaria in Indonesia.

Disease surveillance aims to collect data at different times or locations, to assist public health authorities to respond appropriately. Surveillance of the simian malaria parasite, , is sparse in some endemic areas and the spatial extent of transmission is uncertain. Zoonotic transmission of has been demonstrated throughout Southeast Asia and represents a major hurdle to regional malaria elimination efforts.

Tafenoquine following G6PD screening versus primaquine for the treatment of vivax malaria in Brazil: A cost-effectiveness analysis using a transmission model.

Background: Malaria transmission modelling has demonstrated the potential impact of semiquantitative glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing and treatment with single-dose tafenoquine for Plasmodium vivax radical cure but has not investigated the associated costs. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of P. vivax treatment with tafenoquine after G6PD testing using a transmission model.

A blueprint for a multi-disease, multi-domain Bayesian adaptive platform trial incorporating adult and paediatric subgroups: the Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform trial.

The Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform (SNAP) trial is a multifactorial Bayesian adaptive platform trial that aims to improve the way that S. aureus bloodstream infection, a globally common and severe infectious disease, is treated. In a world first, the SNAP trial will simultaneously investigate the effects of multiple intervention modalities within multiple groups of participants with different forms of S.

Transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 in a humanitarian setting: First few X investigation of cases and contacts in Juba, South Sudan, 2020.

Background: The first few 'X' (FFX) studies provide evidence to guide public health decision-making and resource allocation. The adapted WHO Unity FFX protocol for COVID-19 was implemented to gain an understanding of the clinical, epidemiological, virological and household transmission dynamics of the first cases of COVID-19 infection detected in Juba, South Sudan.

Methods: Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were identified through the national surveillance system, and an initial visit was conducted with eligible cases to identify all close contacts.