Coupling Genetic and Demographic Data to Reveal Dispersal Processes in Emperor Penguins.

Dispersal is a ubiquitous phenomenon that affects the dynamics of the population and the evolution of natural populations; however, it is challenging to measure in most species. Furthermore, the influence of informed dispersal behaviors, referring to the nonrandom selection of breeding habitats by individuals, on species' responses to rapid global change is substantial but difficult to comprehend. Here, we present a modeling framework to assess the dispersal characteristics and behaviors of a metapopulation when observations provide information on its neutral genetic structure for a restricted sampling of locations.

Temporal and spatial equivalence in demographic responses of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) to environmental change.

Population ecology and biogeography applications often necessitate the transfer of models across spatial and/or temporal dimensions to make predictions outside the bounds of the data used for model fitting. However, ecological data are often spatiotemporally unbalanced such that the spatial or the temporal dimension tends to contain more data than the other. This unbalance frequently leads model transfers to become substitutions, which are predictions to a different dimension than the predictive model was built on.

Climate Change Impacts Pair-Bond Dynamics in a Long-Lived Monogamous Species.

Climate change can influence populations of monogamous species by affecting pair-bond dynamics. This study examined the impact of climate on widowhood and divorce, and the subsequent effects on individual vital rates and life-history outcomes over 54 years in a snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea) population. We found that environmental conditions can affect pair-bond dynamics both directly and indirectly.

Plastic Behaviour Buffers Climate Variability in the Wandering Albatross.

Climate change has marked effects on global weather patterns and oceanic systems, impacting animal behaviour and fitness in potentially profound ways. Despite this, we lack detailed information about species' responses to climatic variation. Using an 11-year tracking dataset of over 300 individual birds, we explore the consequences of variation in the southern annular mode (SAM) and southern oscillation index (SOI) for individual behaviour and fitness in wandering albatrosses breeding in the Southern Indian Ocean.

A modeling approach to forecast local demographic trends in metapopulations.

Predicting animal population trajectories into the future has become a central exercise in both applied and fundamental ecology. Because demographic models classically assume population closure, they tend to provide inaccurate predictions when applied locally to interconnected subpopulations that are part of a larger metapopulation. Ideally, one should explicitly model dispersal among subpopulations, but in practice this is prevented by the difficulty of estimating dispersal rates in the wild.

Brooding duration does not depend on cat predation risk but is related to weather and phenology in the wandering albatross ().

Parental investment increases offspring fitness at the expense of the parent's ability to invest in other offspring. In many animal species, parents guard their offspring after birth. The parental decision over the duration of this period is expected to be triggered by the associated fitness costs and benefits for both offspring and parents.

Bottom-up effects drive the dynamic of an Antarctic seabird predator-prey system.

Understanding how populations respond to variability in environmental conditions and interspecific interactions is one of the biggest challenges of population ecology, particularly in the context of global change. Although many studies have investigated population responses to climate change, very few have explicitly integrated interspecific relationships when studying these responses. In this study, we aimed to understand the combined effects of interspecific interactions and environmental conditions on the demographic parameters of a prey-predator system of three sympatric seabird populations breeding in Antarctica: the south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki) and its two main preys during the breeding season, the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) and the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri).

The impact of boldness on demographic rates and life-history outcomes in the wandering albatross.

Differences among individuals within a population are ubiquitous. Those differences are known to affect the entire life cycle with important consequences for all demographic rates and outcomes. One source of among-individual phenotypic variation that has received little attention from a demographic perspective is animal personality, which is defined as consistent and heritable behavioural differences between individuals.

Advances in remote sensing of emperor penguins: first multi-year time series documenting trends in the global population.

Like many polar animals, emperor penguin populations are challenging to monitor because of the species' life history and remoteness. Consequently, it has been difficult to establish its global status, a subject important to resolve as polar environments change. To advance our understanding of emperor penguins, we combined remote sensing, validation surveys and using Bayesian modelling, we estimated a comprehensive population trajectory over a recent 10-year period, encompassing the entirety of the species' range.

How does maternal age influence reproductive performance and offspring phenotype in the snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea)?

In wild vertebrates, the increase of breeding success with advancing age has been extensively studied through laying date, clutch size, hatching success, and fledging success. However, to better evaluate the influence of age on reproductive performance in species with high reproductive success, assessing not only reproductive success but also other proxies of reproductive performance appear crucial. For example, the quality of developmental conditions and offspring phenotype can provide robust and complementary information on reproductive performance.

Machine and deep learning approaches to understand and predict habitat suitability for seabird breeding.

The way animals select their breeding habitat may have great impacts on individual fitness. This complex process depends on the integration of information on various environmental factors, over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales. For seabirds, breeding habitat selection integrates both land and sea features over several spatial scales.

Investigating two consecutive catastrophic breeding seasons in a large king penguin colony.

Large-scale breeding failures, such as offspring die-offs, can disproportionately impact wildlife populations that are characterized by a few large colonies. However, breeding monitoring-and thus investigations of such die-offs-is especially challenging in species with long reproductive cycles. We investigate two unresolved dramatic breeding failures that occurred in consecutive years (2009 and 2010) in a large king penguin Aptenodytes patagonicus colony, a long-lived species with a breeding cycle lasting over a year.

Individual life histories: neither slow nor fast, just diverse.

The slow-fast continuum is a commonly used framework to describe variation in life-history strategies across species. Individual life histories have also been assumed to follow a similar pattern, especially in the pace-of-life syndrome literature. However, whether a slow-fast continuum commonly explains life-history variation among individuals within a population remains unclear.

Global assessment of marine plastic exposure risk for oceanic birds.

Plastic pollution is distributed patchily around the world's oceans. Likewise, marine organisms that are vulnerable to plastic ingestion or entanglement have uneven distributions. Understanding where wildlife encounters plastic is crucial for targeting research and mitigation.

Causes and consequences of pair-bond disruption in a sex-skewed population of a long-lived monogamous seabird.

Many animals form long-term monogamous pair bonds, and the disruption of a pair bond (through either divorce or widowhood) can have significant consequences for individual vital rates (survival, breeding, and breeding success probabilities) and life-history outcomes (lifetime reproductive success [LRS], life expectancy). Here, we investigated the causes and consequences of pair-bond disruption in wandering albatross (). State-of-the-art statistical and mathematical approaches were developed to estimate divorce and widowhood rates and their impacts on vital rates and life-history outcomes.

Boldness predicts divorce rates in wandering albatrosses ().

Personality predicts divorce rates in humans, yet how personality traits affect divorce in wild animals remains largely unknown. In a male-skewed population of wandering albatross (), we showed that personality predicts divorce; shyer males exhibited higher divorce rates than bolder males but no such relationship was found in females. We propose that divorce may be caused by the intrusion of male competitors and shyer males divorce more often because of their avoidance of territorial aggression, while females have easier access to mates regardless of their personality.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going: Effect of extreme climate on an Antarctic seabird's life history.

Individuals differ in many ways. Most produce few offspring; a handful produce many. Some die early; others live to old age.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species' life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity.

A U-Turn for Mercury Concentrations over 20 Years: How Do Environmental Conditions Affect Exposure in Arctic Seabirds?

Mercury (Hg) is highly toxic in its methylated form (MeHg), and global change is likely to modify its bioavailability in the environment. However, it is unclear how top predators will be impacted. We studied blood Hg concentrations of chick-rearing black-legged kittiwakes (2000-2019) in Svalbard (Norway).

The call of the emperor penguin: Legal responses to species threatened by climate change.

Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Landfast ice: a major driver of reproductive success in a polar seabird.

In a fast-changing world, polar ecosystems are threatened by climate variability. Understanding the roles of fine-scale processes, and linear and nonlinear effects of climate factors on the demography of polar species is crucial for anticipating the future state of these fragile ecosystems. While the effects of sea ice on polar marine top predators are increasingly being studied, little is known about the impacts of landfast ice (LFI) on this species community.

The Indian Ocean 'garbage patch': Empirical evidence from floating macro-litter.

Marine litter has become a global issue with 'garbage patches' documented in all ocean gyres. The Pacific and Atlantic garbage patches have been well described, but there are few empirical data for the Indian Ocean. In the austral summer 2019-2020, we conducted an at-sea survey of macro-litter in the rarely investigated south-west Indian Ocean.