Prolonged Hospitalization Among Children Aged < 5 Years Admitted With Acute Gastroenteritis at Siaya County Referral Hospital, in Rural Western Kenya: 2010-2020.

Background: Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) causes substantial morbidity and mortality in children < 5 years old accounting for 9 million hospitalizations. Prolonged hospitalization can cause dire consequences to the patient and healthcare system. However, data on factors associated with prolonged hospitalization for AGE in developing countries are limited.

Factors associated with laboratory-confirmed SARS-Cov-2 infection among patients with severe respiratory illness (SRI): Findings from the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness evaluation in Kenya and Mali, 2022-2023.

Background: Understanding the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in settings with limited data, especially given the dynamic nature of the virus and the reported epidemiological heterogeneity across countries, is important. We used data from the COVID-19 Vaccine effectiveness evaluation to determine factors associated with SARS-COV-2 infection among patients (≥ 12 years) with severe respiratory illness (SRI) in Kenya and Mali.

Methods: SRI was defined as acute onset (≤ 14 days) of at least two of the following: cough, fever, chills, rigors, myalgia, headache, sore throat, fatigue, congestion or runny nose, loss of taste or smell, or pneumonia diagnosis.

A machine learning approach to predicting inpatient mortality among pediatric acute gastroenteritis patients in Kenya.

Background: Mortality prediction scores for children admitted with diarrhea are unavailable, early identification of at-risk patients for proper management remains a challenge. This study utilizes machine learning (ML) to develop a highly sensitive model for timelier identification of at-risk children admitted with acute gastroenteritis (AGE) for better management.

Methods: We used seven ML algorithms to build prognostic models for the prediction of mortality using de-identified data collected from children aged <5 years hospitalized with AGE at Siaya County Referral Hospital (SCRH), Kenya, between 2010 through 2020.

Seasonal influenza vaccination in Kenya: What determines healthcare Workers' willingness to accept and recommend vaccination?

Introduction: Data about healthcare workers' (HCW) willingness to accept and recommend seasonal influenza vaccination in countries without influenza vaccination programs are limited.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 7 of the 47 counties in Kenya to examine HCW's knowledge and perceptions of seasonal influenza disease and vaccination. We aimed to enroll all HCW who deliver clinical services directly or peripherally to patients from 5 health facilities in each county.

Factors associated with mortality among patients aged 12 years and above requiring hospitalization for severe respiratory illness (SRI): Findings from the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness evaluation in Kenya and Mali, 2022-2023.

Background: Mortality attributed to respiratory illnesses is well characterized in children <5 years. However, there is paucity of data among older populations. Here, we leveraged data from the COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Evaluation to establish the factors associated with mortality among patients with severe respiratory illness (SRI) in Kenya and Mali.

What will it take? Perspectives from five low- and middle-income countries on opportunities and challenges of introducing new maternal vaccines.

Background: New vaccines for pregnant women have recently been introduced in some high-income countries to protect infants in early life. Implementing maternal immunisation (MI) successfully in low- and middle-income countries will require planning and adaptations to immunisation and maternal health programs. To inform cost of MI delivery studies, we gathered perspectives from key stakeholders in five countries (Bangladesh, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, and Nepal) regarding health system requirements, opportunities, and challenges to introducing new maternal vaccines into routine health programs.

Cost of delivering childhood RSV prevention interventions to the health system in Kenya: a prospective analysis.

Objectives: To evaluate the cost of delivering childhood respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prevention interventions to the health system in Kenya.

Design: A prospective (cost projection) activity-based costing study.

Setting: Kenya, national introduction of interventions.

The influence of malaria control interventions and climate variability on changes in the geographical distribution of parasite prevalence in Kenya between 2015 and 2020.

Background: The burden of malaria in Kenya was showing a declining trend, but appears to have reached a plateau in recent years. This study estimated changes in the geographical distribution of malaria parasite risk in the country between the years 2015 and 2020, and quantified the contribution of malaria control interventions and climatic/ environmental factors to these changes.

Methods: Bayesian geostatistical models were used to analyse the Kenyan 2015 and 2020 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) data.

Estimating Influenza Illnesses Averted by Year-Round and Seasonal Campaign Vaccination for Young Children, Kenya.

In Kenya, influenza virus circulates year-round, raising questions about optimum strategies for vaccination. Given national interest in introducing influenza vaccination for young children 6-23 months of age, we modeled total influenza-associated illnesses (inclusive of hospitalizations, outpatient illnesses, and non‒medically attended illnesses) averted by multiple potential vaccination strategies: year-round versus seasonal-campaign vaccination, and vaccination starting in April (Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine availability) versus October (Northern Hemisphere availability). We modeled average vaccine effectiveness of 50% and annual vaccination coverage of 60%.

The effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on malaria mortality at different spatial scales in western Kenya, 2008-2019.

Background: Malaria mortality is influenced by several factors including climatic and environmental factors, interventions, socioeconomic status (SES) and access to health systems. Here, we investigated the joint effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on under-five malaria mortality at different spatial scales using data from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in western Kenya.

Methods: We fitted Bayesian spatiotemporal (zero-inflated) negative binomial models to monthly mortality data aggregated at the village scale and over the catchment areas of the health facilities within the HDSS, between 2008 and 2019.

The cost of care for children hospitalized with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated lower respiratory infection in Kenya.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the main causes of hospitalization for lower respiratory tract infection in children under five years of age globally. Maternal vaccines and monoclonal antibodies for RSV prevention among infants are approved for use in high income countries. However, data are limited on the economic burden of RSV disease from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) to inform decision making on prioritization and introduction of such interventions.

Predictive modeling for infectious diarrheal disease in pediatric populations: A systematic review.

Introduction: Diarrhea is still a significant global public health problem. There are currently no systematic evaluation of the modeling areas and approaches to predict diarrheal illness outcomes. This paper reviews existing research efforts in predictive modeling of infectious diarrheal illness in pediatric populations.

Genetic and potential antigenic evolution of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses circulating in Kenya during 2009-2018 influenza seasons.

Influenza viruses undergo rapid evolutionary changes, which requires continuous surveillance to monitor for genetic and potential antigenic changes in circulating viruses that can guide control and prevention decision making. We sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed A(H1N1)pdm09 virus genome sequences obtained from specimens collected from hospitalized patients of all ages with or without pneumonia between 2009 and 2018 from seven sentinel surveillance sites across Kenya. We compared these sequences with recommended vaccine strains during the study period to infer genetic and potential antigenic changes in circulating viruses and associations of clinical outcome.

Correcting for measurement error in assessing gestational age in a low-resource setting: a regression calibration approach.

Introduction: Measurement error in gestational age (GA) may bias the association of GA with a health outcome. Ultrasound-based GA is considered the gold standard and is not readily available in low-resource settings. We corrected for measurement error in GA based on fundal height (FH) and date of last menstrual period (LMP) using ultrasound from the sub-cohort and adjusted for the bias in associating GA with neonatal mortality and low birth weight (< 2,500 grams, LBW).

Assessment of gestational age at antenatal care visits among Kenyan women to inform delivery of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in low- and middle-income countries.

Maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines that are likely to be implementable in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are in final stages of clinical trials. Data on the number of women presenting for antenatal care (ANC) per day and proportion attending within the proposed gestational window for vaccine delivery, is a prerequisite to guide development of vaccine vial size and inform vaccine uptake in this setting. We undertook administrative review and abstraction of ANC attendance records from 2019 registers of 24 selected health facilities, stratified by the level of care, from Kilifi, Siaya and Nairobi counties in Kenya.

Value profile for respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and monoclonal antibodies.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children worldwide, yet no licensed RSV vaccine exists to help prevent the millions of illnesses and hospitalizations and tens of thousands of young lives taken each year. Monoclonal antibody (mAb) prophylaxis exists for prevention of RSV in a small subset of very high-risk infants and young children, but the only currently licensed product is impractical, requiring multiple doses and expensive for the low-income settings where the RSV disease burden is greatest. A robust candidate pipeline exists to one day prevent RSV disease in infant and pediatric populations, and it focuses on two promising passive immunization approaches appropriate for low-income contexts: maternal RSV vaccines and long-acting infant mAbs.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Disease and Prevention Products: Knowledge, Attitudes, and Preferences of Kenyan Healthcare Workers in Two Counties in 2021.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among infants under 6 months of age. Yet, in Kenya, little is known about healthcare workers' (HCWs) knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions around RSV disease and the prevention products under development. Between September and October 2021, we conducted a mixed methods cross-sectional survey to assess HCWs' knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of RSV disease and RSV vaccinations in two counties.

Malaria, climate variability, and interventions: modelling transmission dynamics.

Assessment of the relative impact of climate change on malaria dynamics is a complex problem. Climate is a well-known factor that plays a crucial role in driving malaria outbreaks in epidemic transmission areas. However, its influence in endemic environments with intensive malaria control interventions is not fully understood, mainly due to the scarcity of high-quality, long-term malaria data.

The relative effect of climate variability on malaria incidence after scale-up of interventions in western Kenya: A time-series analysis of monthly incidence data from 2008 to 2019.

Background: Despite considerable progress made over the past 20 years in reducing the global burden of malaria, the disease remains a major public health problem and there is concern that climate change might expand suitable areas for transmission. This study investigated the relative effect of climate variability on malaria incidence after scale-up of interventions in western Kenya.

Methods: Bayesian negative binomial models were fitted to monthly malaria incidence data, extracted from records of patients with febrile illnesses visiting the Lwak Mission Hospital between 2008 and 2019.

Estimates of the national burden of respiratory syncytial virus in Kenyan children aged under 5 years, 2010-2018.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is among the leading childhood causes of viral pneumonia worldwide. Establishing RSV-associated morbidity and mortality is important in informing the development, delivery strategies, and evaluation of interventions.

Methods: Using data collected during 2010-2018 from base regions (population-based surveillance studies in western Kenya and the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance Study), we estimated age-specific rates of acute respiratory illness (ARI), severe acute respiratory illness (SARI-defined as hospitalization with cough or difficulty breathing with onset within the past 10 days), and SARI-associated deaths.

Real world external validation of metabolic gestational age assessment in Kenya.

Using data from Ontario Canada, we previously developed machine learning-based algorithms incorporating newborn screening metabolites to estimate gestational age (GA). The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of these algorithms in a population of infants born in Siaya county, Kenya. Cord and heel prick samples were collected from newborns in Kenya and metabolic analysis was carried out by Newborn Screening Ontario in Ottawa, Canada.

Healthcare-seeking behavior for respiratory illnesses in Kenya: implications for burden of disease estimation.

Background: Understanding healthcare-seeking patterns for respiratory illness can help improve estimation of disease burden and target public health interventions to control acute respiratory disease in Kenya.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey to determine healthcare utilization patterns for acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe pneumonia in four diverse counties representing urban, peri-urban, rural mixed farmers, and rural pastoralist communities in Kenya using a two-stage (sub-locations then households) cluster sampling procedure. Healthcare seeking behavior for ARI episodes in the last 14 days, and severe pneumonia in the last 12 months was evaluated.

Drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonal epidemics in children under 5 years in Kilifi, coastal Kenya.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant childhood morbidity and mortality in the developing world. The determinants of RSV seasonality are of importance in designing interventions. They are poorly understood in tropical and sub-tropical regions in low- and middle-income countries.