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Article Abstract
The Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines have been associated with an increased risk of myocarditis. However, COVID-19 infection is also associated with complications. A Bayesian network (BN), informed by Australian and international data, was created to determine individual risks and benefits of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the paediatric. The risk of myocarditis between vaccine-associated, COVID-19 and background rates was compared, as well as secondary outcomes such as hospitalization, and MIS-C. At a population level, hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and MIS-C cases prevented at differing transmission rates and vaccine coverage were analyzed. The model estimated that teenage males were 4.47 times more likely to develop myocarditis from COVID-19 compared to the vaccine. Furthermore, the risk of hospitalizations and MIS-C were more likely in the unvaccinated cohort for all ages. The population level benefits of COVID-19 Pfizer vaccine at mitigating myocarditis are more nuanced, contingent on age, transmission rates and vaccination coverage.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12307593 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41541-025-01237-3 | DOI Listing |
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