Ecological niche comparisons of 3 polyphagous fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species using ensemble models with soil variables.

Invasive polyphagous fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species, including Zeugodacus cucurbitae (Coquillett), Zeugodacus tau (Walker), and Bactrocera zonata (Saunders), pose significant threats to agricultural and food security, particularly in Southeast Asia. This study aims to develop and evaluate species distribution models to predict the potential distribution of the 3 tephritid species based on climatic, soil, and topographic factors. Individual models and ensemble models were employed and tested to identify suitable areas across the region. The study also assesses the ecological niches of the 3 species across key environmental gradients. Our findings highlight that soil factors, often overlooked in predictive modeling, play a critical role in shaping their distributions and improving model prediction accuracy. The outperformance of ensemble models is further demonstrated among different modeling algorithms. The results provide valuable insights into the ecological niches of these invasive fruit fly species, and underscore the necessary of incorporating soil factors in model predictions, to improve invasive risk assessments and inform biosecurity measures.