Trends in supply, demand, and workforce adequacy in vascular surgery: Forecasting a national shortage.

Objective: There is currently a lack of research assessing the adequacy of the vascular surgery workforce in the United States (U.S.). The objective of this study was to determine the supply, demand, and adequacy of the vascular surgery workforce.

Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of full-time equivalent (FTE) physicians in the vascular surgery workforce using data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model (2024 to 2037). Supply was defined as the number of FTEs within the vascular surgery workforce. Demand was defined as the number of FTE vascular surgeons needed to support U.S. health care needs. Workforce adequacy was defined as the ratio of supply over demand. Linear regression was used to analyze workforce trends over the study period. Ten additional surgical specialties were available for comparison of workforce adequacy.

Results: From 2024 to 2037, the supply of the vascular surgeons remained constant at 5790, whereas the demand for vascular surgeons increased from 7860 to 9000 (14.5% increase; P < .001). This resulted in a decreasing vascular surgery workforce adequacy over the study period (73.7% to 64.3%; P < .001). Workforce adequacy was lowest in non-metropolitan areas compared with metropolitan areas (P < .001). In 2024, the states with the lowest workforce adequacy were Nevada (28.6%), Arkansas (33.3%), Delaware (33.3%), South Dakota (33.3%), and Mississippi (33.3%). In 2037, the states with the lowest workforce adequacy were Idaho (20.0%), Arkansas (22.2%), Hawaii (25.0%), and Nevada (25.0%). Vascular surgery ranked last among all surgical specialties for workforce adequacy in 2024 and 2037.

Conclusions: Workforce adequacy in vascular surgery is projected to decrease significantly by 2037, with significant shortages expected in certain states and non-metropolitan areas. Vascular surgery ranked last in workforce adequacy across all studied surgical specialties. Future work is needed to develop strategies that increase the supply of vascular surgeons in the U.S. and ultimately improve workforce adequacy in vascular surgery.