Ash dieback and hydrology affect tree growth patterns under climate change in European floodplain forests.

Floodplain forests are currently undergoing substantial reorganization processes due to the combined effects of management-induced altered hydrological conditions, climate change and novel invasive pathogens. Nowadays, the ash dieback is one of the most concerning diseases affecting European floodplain forests, causing substantial tree mortality and threatening the loss of the dominant key tree species of the hardwood floodplain forest, Fraxinus excelsior. Understanding how the increased light availability caused by pathogen-driven mortality in combination with altered hydrological conditions and climate change affects growth responses in a diverse forest community is of crucial importance for conservation efforts. Thus, we examined growth of the main tree species in response to ash dieback and how it depended on altered hydrological conditions under novel climatic conditions for the lower and upper canopy in the floodplain forest of Leipzig, Germany. Our study period encompassed the consecutive drought years from 2018 to 2020. We found that tree growth responded mostly positively to increased light availability, but only on moist sites, while tree growth largely declined on dry sites, suggesting that water availability is a critical factor for tree species to be able to benefit from increased light availability due to canopy disturbances caused by ash dieback. This hydrological effect was species-specific in the lower canopy but not in the upper canopy. While, in the lower canopy, some species such as the competitive shade-tolerant but flood-intolerant Acer pseudoplatanus and Acer platanoides benefited from ash dieback on moist sites, others were less affected or suffered disproportionally, indicating that floodplain forests might turn into a novel ecosystem dominated by competitive Acer species, which may have detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Our results give hints on floodplain forests of the future and have important implications for conservation measures, suggesting that a substantial revitalization of natural hydrological dynamics is important to maintain a tree composition that resembles the existing one and thus sustain their conservation status.