Polygenic and transcriptional risk scores identify chronic obstructive pulmonary disease subtypes in the COPDGene and ECLIPSE cohort studies.

Background: Genetic variants and gene expression predict risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but their effect on COPD heterogeneity is unclear. We aimed to define high-risk COPD subtypes using genetics (polygenic risk score, PRS) and blood gene expression (transcriptional risk score, TRS) and assess differences in clinical and molecular characteristics.

Methods: We defined high-risk groups based on PRS and TRS quantiles by maximising differences in protein biomarkers in a COPDGene training set and identified these groups in COPDGene and ECLIPSE test sets. We tested multivariable associations of subgroups with clinical outcomes and compared protein-protein interaction networks and drug repurposing analyses between high-risk groups.

Findings: We examined two high-risk omics-defined groups in non-overlapping test sets (n = 1133 NHW COPDGene, n = 299 African American (AA) COPDGene, n = 468 ECLIPSE). We defined "high activity" (low PRS, high TRS) and "severe risk" (high PRS, high TRS) subgroups. Participants in both subgroups had lower body-mass index (BMI), lower lung function, and alterations in metabolic, growth, and immune signalling processes compared to a low-risk (low PRS, low TRS) subgroup. "High activity" but not "severe risk" participants had greater prospective FEV decline (COPDGene: -51 mL/year; ECLIPSE: -40 mL/year) and proteomic profiles were enriched in gene sets perturbed by treatment with 5-lipoxygenase inhibitors and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors.

Interpretation: Concomitant use of polygenic and transcriptional risk scores identified clinical and molecular heterogeneity amongst high-risk individuals. Proteomic and drug repurposing analysis identified subtype-specific enrichment for therapies and suggest prior drug repurposing failures may be explained by patient selection.

Funding: National Institutes of Health.