Performance of Risk Models for Antimicrobial Resistance in Adult Patients With Sepsis.

Importance: The results of prediction models that stratify patients with sepsis and risk of resistant gram-negative bacilli (GNB) infections inform treatment guidelines. However, these models do not extrapolate well across hospitals.

Objective: To assess whether patient case mix and local prevalence rates of resistance contributed to the variable performance of a general risk stratification GNB sepsis model for community-onset and hospital-onset sepsis across hospitals.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This was a retrospective cohort study conducted from January 2016 and October 2021. Adult patients with sepsis at 10 acute-care hospitals in rural and urban areas across Missouri and Illinois were included. Inclusion criteria were blood cultures indicating sepsis, having received 4 days of antibiotic treatment, and having organ dysfunction (vasopressor use, mechanical ventilation, increased creatinine or bilirubin levels, and thrombocytopenia). Analyses were completed in April 2024.

Exposure: The model included demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory values, procedures, and medications administered.

Main Outcomes And Measures: Culture results were stratified for ceftriaxone-susceptible GNB (SS), ceftriaxone-resistant but cefepime-susceptible GNB (RS), and ceftriaxone- and cefepime-resistant GNB (RR). Negative cultures and other pathogens were labeled SS. Deep learning models were developed separately for community-onset (patient presented with sepsis) and hospital-onset (sepsis developed ≥48 hours after admission) sepsis. The models were tested across hospitals and patient subgroups. Models were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under precision recall curve (AUPRC).

Results: A total of 39 893 patients with 85 238 sepsis episodes (43 207 [50.7%] community onset; 42 031 [48.3%] hospital onset) were included. Median (IQR) age was 65 (54-74) years, 21 241 patients (53.2%) were male, and 18 830 (47.2%) had a previous episode of sepsis. RS contributed to 3.9% (1667 episodes) and 5.7% (2389 episodes) of community-onset and hospital-onset sepsis episodes, respectively, and RR contributed to 1.8% (796 episodes) and 3.9% (1626 episodes), respectively. Previous infections and exposure to antibiotics were associated with the risk of resistant GNB. For example, in community-onset sepsis, 375 RR episodes (47.1%), 420 RS episodes (25.2%) and 3483 of 40 744 (8.5%) SS episodes were among patients with resistance to antimicrobial drugs (P < .001). The AUROC and AUPRC results varied across hospitals and patient subgroups for both community-onset and hospital-onset sepsis. AUPRC values correlated with the prevalence rates of resistant GNB (R = 0.79; P = .001).

Conclusions And Relevance: In this cohort study of 39 893 patients with sepsis, variable model performance was associated with prevalence rates of antimicrobial resistance rather than patient case mix. This variability suggests caution is needed when using generalized models for predicting resistant GNB etiologies in sepsis.