Estimated health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of implementing WHO's sodium benchmarks for packaged foods in India: a modelling study.

Background: Excess dietary sodium intake has been associated with death and disability. WHO has released global sodium benchmarks for packaged foods to support countries to reduce population sodium intake. This study aimed to assess the potential health effect, costs, and cost effectiveness of implementing these WHO sodium benchmarks in India.

Methods: We used a multiple cohort, proportional multistate, life table (Markov) model to estimate the health gains and cost effectiveness for adults if sodium content in packaged foods complied with the WHO benchmarks compared to the status quo. We used India-specific dietary surveys, food composition tables, foods sales data, and sodium content data from packaged food labels to estimate sodium intake before and after the intervention. Data on blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease burden were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study, and the effect of sodium reduction on blood pressure and disease risk was modelled on the basis of meta-analyses of randomised trials and cohort studies. Intervention and health-care costs were used to estimate net costs, and calculate the incremental cost per health-adjusted life-year (HALY) gained. Costs and HALYs were discounted at 3%.

Findings: In the first 10 years, compliance with the WHO sodium benchmarks was estimated to avert a mean of 0·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·2-0·5) million deaths from cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease, a mean of 1·7 (95% UI 1·0-2·4) million incident cardiovascular disease events, and 0·7 (0·4-1·0) million new chronic kidney disease cases, compared with current practice. Over 10 years, the intervention was projected to be cost saving (100·0% probability), generating 1·0 (0·6 to 1·4) billion HALYs and US$0·8 (95% UI 0·3 to 1·4) million in cost savings. Over the population lifetime, the intervention could prevent 4·2 (2·4-6·0) million deaths from cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease, 14·0 (8·2-20·1) million incident cardiovascular disease events, and 4·8 (2·8-6·8) new chronic kidney disease cases, with an 84·2% probability of being cost-saving and 100·0% probability of being cost-effective.

Interpretation: Our modelling data suggest a high potential for compliance with WHO sodium benchmarks for packaged food being associated with substantial health gains and cost savings, making a strong case for India to mandate the implementation of the WHO sodium benchmarks, particularly as packaged food consumption continues to rise.

Funding: WHO Country Office India.