Student performance correlates of psychology admission exam scores and the number of places for students.

University admission test rankings are related to later student performance. Austria (Europe) faces amendments to the psychotherapy law, introducing a polyvalent bachelor's program in psychology, enabling admission for both a master's program in psychology and psychotherapy. Psychology is in high demand at public universities and has restricted access. This study aimed to answer the question whether increasing the number of places for psychology students can be recommended in the Austrian university system. Objective data of administrative university databases was merged, resulting in a sample of 1323 bachelor's psychology students of the cohorts from 2013/14 to 2023/24. Admission exam results, student performance metrics, the outcome (graduation/ dropout) and sociodemographic and -economic data was retrieved. Analyses showed low to moderate correlations between the rankings in the admission exam and later performance, different for graduates and dropouts in psychology and students, who were admitted, but enrolled elsewhere. Logistic regression models showed that rankings can predict students' outcomes. Based on graduation rates, results were extrapolated from 230 current places. Results suggest that 376 to 470 students in total may be admitted. The results of this study can help policymakers, university systems and university managers (re-)evaluate the number of places for bachelor's psychology students.