The nonlinear relationship between triglyceride glucose-waist circumference and stroke risk in middle-aged and elderly people: a nationwide prospective cohort study of the CHARLS.

Background And Aims: Numerous research have focused on the relationship of metabolic markers and stroke risk, yet limited research has focused on the triglyceride glucose-waist circumference (TyG-WC) index. This study explored the possible association of TyG-WC and stroke among moderately aged and old Chinese adults over 45 years of age.

Methods: This observational cohort analysis involved 9054 participants from the Chinese Longitudinal Study of Health and Retirement and employed a standardized questionnaire administered via in-person interviews. Cox proportional hazard model, smoothed curve fitting, and threshold effect analysis were conducted for examining the potential nonlinear relationships among TyG-WC and stroke risk.

Results: Within an average follow-up period of six years, 463 new strokes occurred, representing 5.11% of the total number of patients. After adjusting for possible confounding factors, a nonlinear association between TyG-WC and stroke risk was identified, with a significant dose-response relationship (P = 0.023 for the log-likelihood ratio test). A turning point was identified at the TyG-WC level of 554.48, beyond that the likelihood of stroke increased markedly (HR = 1.323, 95% CI = 1.098-1.594, P = 0.003).

Conclusion: This study revealed a specific curvilinear association with the TyG-WC score and stroke risk, identifying a key threshold value. This study focused on Chinese middle-aged and senior adults over the age of 45, emphasizing that increased stroke risk is linked to higher TyG-WC levels.