Correlation between tumor budding and the long-term follow-up outcomes after endoscopic submucosal dissection for superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: The effect of tumor budding (TB) on the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) remains unclear. We evaluated the long-term outcomes of patients with superficial ESCC after ESD and the risk factors of TB for the long-term prognosis.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective study in a Chinese hospital. All patients with ESCC treated by ESD and reported TB were included consecutively. Comparative analyses were conducted in three parts: specimen analysis, follow-up analyses of unmatched patients, and propensity score-matched (PSM) patients. Cox proportional hazard regression models were constructed to identify risk factors for overall survival and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

Results: A total of 437 patients were enrolled [154 TB and 283 no tumor budding (NTB)], and 258 patients (52 TB and 206 NTB) were included in the follow-up analysis. Results showed that the invasion depth, differentiation type, and positive vascular invasion (all p < 0.001) of the TB group were significantly different from the NTB group. The all-cause mortality and the median RFS time between the two groups were comparable. RFS rate at 5 years were 84.6% and 80.6%, respectively (p = 0.43). Cox analyses identified that having other cancers but not TB, as a risk factor independently associated with overall survival and RFS after ESD.

Conclusion: TB tends to be associated with invasion depth, differentiation type, and positive vascular invasion. However, it might not affect the long-term outcomes of patients with superficial ESCC after ESD when other high-risk factors are negative.