Prediction of survival after neoadjuvant therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer - a retrospective analysis.

Purpose: The aim of this retrospective analysis was to determine if the response to preoperative radio(chemo)therapy is predictive for survival among patients with locally advanced rectal cancer and may act as a potential surrogate endpoint for disease free survival and overall survival.

Results: Eight hundred seventy-eight patients from five centers were analyzed. There were 304 women and 574 men; the median age was 64.7 years. 77.6% and 22.4% of patients received neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy or short-course radiotherapy, resulting in a pathological complete response in 7.3%. T-downstaging and N-downstaging occurred in 50.5% and 37% of patients after neoadjuvant therapy. In patients with T-downstaging, the 10-year DFS and 10-year OS were 64.8% and 66.8% compared to 37.1% and 45.9% in patients without T-downstaging. N-downstaging resulted in 10-year DFS and 10-year OS in 56.2% and 62.5% compared to 47.3% and 52.3% without N-downstaging. Based on routinely evaluated clinical parameters, an absolute risk prediction calculator was generated for 5-year disease-free survival, and 5-year overall survival.

Conclusion: T-downstaging and N-downstaging after neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy or short-course radiotherapy resulted in better DFS and OS compared to patients without response. Based on clinical parameters, 5-year DFS, and 5-year OS can be predicted using a prediction calculator.