Machine Learning Model for Predicting Axillary Lymph Node Metastasis in Clinically Node Positive Breast Cancer Based on Peritumoral Ultrasound Radiomics and SHAP Feature Analysis.

Objective: This study seeks to construct a machine learning model that merges clinical characteristics with ultrasound radiomic analysis-encompassing both the intratumoral and peritumoral-to predict the status of axillary lymph nodes in patients with early-stage breast cancer.

Methods: The study employed retrospective methods, collecting clinical information, ultrasound data, and postoperative pathological results from 321 breast cancer patients (including 224 in the training group and 97 in the validation group). Through correlation analysis, univariate analysis, and Lasso regression analysis, independent risk factors related to axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer were identified from conventional ultrasound and immunohistochemical indicators, and a clinical feature model was constructed. Additionally, features were extracted from ultrasound images of the intratumoral and its 1-5 mm peritumoral to establish a radiomics feature formula. Furthermore, by combining clinical features and ultrasound radiomics features, six machine learning models (Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors) were compared for diagnostic efficacy, and constructing a joint prediction model based on the optimal ML algorithm. The use of Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) enhanced the visualization and interpretability of the model during the diagnostic process.

Results: Among the 321 breast cancer patients, 121 had axillary lymph node metastasis, and 200 did not. The clinical feature model had an AUC of 0.779 and 0.777 in the training and validation groups, respectively. Radiomics model analysis showed that the model including the Intratumor +3 mm peritumor area had the best diagnostic performance, with AUCs of 0.847 and 0.844 in the training and validation groups, respectively. The joint prediction model based on the XGBoost algorithm reached AUCs of 0.917 and 0.905 in the training and validation groups, respectively. SHAP analysis indicated that the Rad Score had the highest weight in the prediction model, playing a significant role in predicting axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer.

Conclusion: The predictive model, which integrates clinical features and radiomic characteristics using the XGBoost algorithm, demonstrates significant diagnostic value for axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer. This model can provide significant references for preoperative surgical strategy selection and prognosis evaluation for breast cancer patients, helping to reduce postoperative complications and improve long-term survival rates. Additionally, the utilization of SHAP enhancing the global and local interpretability of the model.