Quantitative analysis of apparent diffusion coefficients to predict neurological prognosis in cardiac arrest survivors: an observational derivation and internal-external validation study.

Background: This study aimed to validate apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values and thresholds to predict poor neurological outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) survivors by quantitatively analysing the ADC values via brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

Methods: This observational study used prospectively collected data from two tertiary academic hospitals. The derivation cohort comprised 70% of the patients randomly selected from one hospital, whereas the internal validation cohort comprised the remaining 30%. The external validation cohort used the data from another hospital, and the MRI data were restricted to scans conducted at 3 T within 72-96 h after an OHCA experience. We analysed the percentage of brain volume below a specific ADC value at 50-step intervals ranging from 200 to 1200 × 10 mm/s, identifying thresholds that differentiate between good and poor outcomes. Poor neurological outcomes were defined as cerebral performance categories 3-5, 6 months after experiencing an OHCA.

Results: A total of 448 brain MRI scans were evaluated, including a derivation cohort (n = 224) and internal/external validation cohorts (n = 96/128, respectively). The proportion of brain volume with ADC values below 450, 500, 550, 600, and 650 × 10 mm/s demonstrated good to excellent performance in predicting poor neurological outcomes in the derivation group (area under the curve [AUC] 0.89-0.91), and there were no statistically significant differences in performances among the derivation, internal validation, and external validation groups (all P > 0.5). Among these, the proportion of brain volume with an ADC below 600 × 10 mm/s predicted a poor outcome with a 0% false-positive rate (FPR) and 76% (95% confidence interval [CI] 68-83) sensitivity at a threshold of > 13.2% in the derivation cohort. In both the internal and external validation cohorts, when using the same threshold, a specificity of 100% corresponded to sensitivities of 71% (95% CI 58-81) and 78% (95% CI 66-87), respectively.

Conclusions: In this validation study, by consistently restricting the MRI types and timing during quantitative analysis of ADC values in brain MRI, we observed high reproducibility and sensitivity at a 0% FPR. Prospective multicentre studies are necessary to validate these findings.