Theoretical Prediction of the 210 Pb Burden in the Skeleton from Radon Exposure and Other Intake Routes.

The 210 Pb burden in the skeleton is a measurement value suitable for the estimation of the cumulative exposure to radon, based on which the resultant risk of lung cancer can be derived. There have been a handful of studies that successfully measured 210 Pb activity in the bones of volunteers who had chronic exposure to high concentrations of radon occupationally or in their residences. However, the quantitative relationship between measured 210 Pb activity and radon exposure remains elusive. Herein, we investigate the origin of the skeletal burden by employing the biokinetic model recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and modeling various routes of intake. First, the baseline 210 Pb burden for the general public regarding eating assorted foodstuffs and breathing normal air is obtained. It is found that this baseline burden ranges between 7.3 to 46.5 Bq for a 50-y-old (male) person, which characterizes a large variance due to the uncertainty of each route of intake. Next, we concentrate on radon exposure by referring to two experimental studies where the accounts of exposure and the measured 210 Pb burden for each volunteer are documented in detail. From comparing our prediction and measurements, it is found that exposure to higher concentration of radon is the most significant source of 210 Pb intake, and the quantitative differences can be reasonably explained by the uncertainty resulting from regular intake routes. This study establishes the theoretical foundation for assessing one's risk of lung cancer due to radon exposure by measuring the 210 Pb burden in bones.