Does the Cognitive Change Index Predict Future Cognitive and Clinical Decline? Longitudinal Analysis in a Demographically Diverse Cohort.

Background: The Cognitive Change Index (CCI) is a widely-used measure of self-perceived cognitive ability and change. Unfortunately, it is unclear if the CCI predicts future cognitive and clinical decline.

Objective: We evaluated baseline CCI to predict transition from normal cognition to cognitive impairment in nondemented older adults and in predementia groups including, subjective cognitive decline, motoric cognitive risk syndrome, and mild cognitive impairment. Different versions of the CCI were assessed to uncover any differential risk sensitivity. We also examined the effect of ethnicity/race on CCI.

Methods: Einstein Aging Study participants (N = 322, Mage = 77.57±4.96, % female=67.1, Meducation = 15.06±3.54, % non-Hispanic white = 46.3) completed an expanded 40-item CCI version (CCI-40) and neuropsychological evaluation (including Clinical Dementia Rating Scale [CDR], Montreal Cognitive Assessment, and Craft Story) at baseline and annual follow-up (Mfollow - up=3.4 years). CCI-40 includes the original 20 items (CCI-20) and the first 12 memory items (CCI-12). Linear mixed effects models (LME) and generalized LME assessed the association of CCI total scores at baseline with rate of decline in neuropsychological tests and CDR.

Results: In the overall sample and across predementia groups, the CCI was associated with rate of change in log odds on CDR, with higher CCI at baseline predicting faster increase in the odds of being impaired on CDR. The predictive validity of the CCI broadly held across versions (CCI-12, 20, 40) and ethnic/racial groups (non-Hispanic black and white).

Conclusions: Self-perception of cognitive change on the CCI is a useful marker of dementia risk in demographically/clinically diverse nondemented samples. All CCI versions successfully predicted decline.