The decline of kilkas, sturgeons and seals in the Caspian Sea: The potential of qualitative loop analysis for the cumulative assessment of multiple drivers of stress.

Multiple stressors often act concomitantly on ecosystems but detection of species responses follows the "single species-single driver" strategy, and cumulative impacts are seldom considered. During 1990-2010, multiple perturbations in the Caspian Sea, led to the decline of kilka, sturgeon and Caspian seal populations. Specific causes for their collapse were identified but a cumulative assessment has never been carried out. Using loop analysis, a qualitative modelling technique suitable in poor-data contexts, we show how multiple drivers can be combined to assess their cumulative impact. We confirm that the decline of kilka, sturgeon and Caspian seal populations is compatible with a net effect of the concomitant perturbations. Kilkas collapse was certainly due to the outburst of M. leidyi and overfishing. In addition, the excess nutrient might have conspired to reduce these populations. The interplay between concurrent drivers produces trade-offs between opposite effects and ecosystem management must face this challenge.