Application of the Time Derivative (TD) Method for Early Alert of Influenza Epidemics.

Background: In order to minimize the spread of seasonal influenza epidemic to communities worldwide, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency has issued an influenza epidemic alert using the influenza epidemic threshold formula based on the results of the influenza-like illness (ILI) rate. However, unusual changes have occurred in the pattern of respiratory infectious diseases, including seasonal influenza, after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. As a result, the importance of detecting the onset of an epidemic earlier than the existing epidemic alert system is increasing. Accordingly, in this study, the Time Derivative (TD) method was suggested as a supplementary approach to the existing influenza alert system for the early detection of seasonal influenza epidemics.

Methods: The usefulness of the TD method as an early epidemic alert system was evaluated by applying the ILI rate for each week during past seasons when seasonal influenza epidemics occurred, ranging from the 2013-2014 season to the 2022-2023 season to compare it with the issued time of the actual influenza epidemic alert.

Results: As a result of applying the TD method, except for the two seasons (2020-2021 season and 2021-2022 season) that had no influenza epidemic, an influenza early epidemic alert was suggested during the remaining seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 and 2022-2023 seasons.

Conclusion: The TD method is a time series analysis that enables early epidemic alert in real-time without relying on past epidemic information. It can be considered as an alternative approach when it is challenging to set an epidemic threshold based on past period information. This situation may arise when there has been a change in the typical seasonal epidemic pattern of various respiratory viruses, including influenza, following the COVID-19 pandemic.